Murkowski Weighing Write-In Bid?

Update (7:59 PM):

It should be noted that Senator Bennett would have had a decent chance of victory in Utah, due to the State's overwhelming Republican majority, but the same cannot be said of Alaska - its politics are unpredictable at best.

Original post:

Bad news out of Alaska this evening via Roll Call.

If Senator Murkowski does run as a write-in candidate for reelection, she's only hurting her own image, the Republican Party in the State of Alaska and future control of the United States Senate. As you (the reader) might remember, Senator Bennett was also considered a viable "write-in" threat after his Primary loss in Utah.

Any thoughts on Murkowski's possible write-in campaign?




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Joe Miller Wins in Alaska.

Joe Miller has officially won the Republican Senatorial Nomination:

Judge Joe Miller - 52,360 - 50.71%.

Sen. Murkowski - 50,891 - 49.29%.

Difference in tally - 1,469 - 01.42%.

This represents the end of Senator Lisa Murkowski's Senate career, which started in December of 2002. She was originally appointed by her father to the position, and was elected to her own full-term (6 years) in 2004 by 9,349 votes. President Bush won Alaska by 80,000 votes that same day.

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State of Alaska is counting 15,000 ballots today.

Update (10:25) - Just two more items to note:

This is the second time that Sarah Palin has defeated a Murkowski.

This is the first time in three decades that no Murkowski will be in DC.

Update (9:34) - Miller will bring something unique to D.C. from Alaska:

100% Conservatism. No questions asked.

Update (9:31) - I think it's safe to say that Miller has won:

Judge Joe Miller - 52,360 - 50.71%.
Sen. Murkowski - 50,891 - 49.29%.
Difference in tally - 1,469 - 01.42%.

Murkowski needs a miracle to win. It's time to concede.

Congrats to Mr.Miller, lets win this election now!

Update (5:34) - Visit the Alaska Politics Blog for Updates.

Murkowski-Miller results are current as of 5:30 PM.

As of now the Alaska Division of Elections has counted 6,096 Republican votes out of 15,000 total votes this afternoon (most are Republican, and there are still about 9,000-10,000 votes overall that need to be counted within the next few weeks), and Senator Murkowski has closed the gap by another 200+ votes.

Senator Murkowski-Joe Miller election day results:

Judge Joe Miller - 47,027 - 50.90%.
Sen. Murkowski - 45,359 - 49.10%.
Difference in tally - 1,668 - 01.80%.

Current Sen. Murkowski-Joe Miller election results:

Judge Joe Miller - 49,888 - 50.66%.
Sen. Murkowski - 48,594 - 49.34%.
Difference in tally - 1,294 - 01.30%.

Sen. Murkowski-Joe Miller absentee ballot vote split:

Sen. Murkowski - 3,235 - 53.00%.
Judge Joe Miller - 2,861 - 47.00%.
Difference in tally - 374 - 06.00%.

With 10,000 Republican absentee ballots uncounted, Senator Murkowski would only need to win 59% those of votes. However, with close to 25,000 outstanding ballots overall (including those already counted today), we can expect upwards to 15,000 Republican ballots in addition to the initial 92,000 votes that were cast last week, which means Senator Murkowski only needs to win 56% of all votes counted.

With 6,096 ballots counted - Murkowski has captured only 53% of votes counted. She might win a majority of absentee and uncounted votes over the next few weeks, but she must capture 56% of votes overall to win the nomination: something that seems increasingly unlikely, but not entirely impossible.

I'll be updating this article through out the day.





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We Need to Take Two Steps Back.

This whole Senator Murkowski/Joe Miller situation has got out of control. The lines have been drawn between pro-grassroots Conservatives and the NRSC. Alaska's old GOP guard, and ideological Conservatives. Senator Lisa Murkowski and Joe Miller.

And it must stop. Everyone needs to take two steps back, and examine the entire situation with fresh eyes.

First, the race in Alaska is too close to call. Lisa Murkowski hasn't won the Nomination, and Joe Miller hasn't won the Nomination. So neither can have their victory stolen from them if 7,600 to 16,000 (5,000 to possibly 10,000 are GOP votes) absentee ballots are still floating around out there, uncounted.

Second, this race is too personal for all parties involved. The old GOP guard and the grassroots activists have been fighting a proxy war for months - in Utah, in Nevada, and in Colorado. And this GOP Nomination battle was/is the straw that broke the camel's back, leading both sides to open a volley of fire against one-another.

Finally, both sides need to realize that both candidates are very acceptable. Ms.Murkowski, is for the most part, a straight shooting Conservative who can please all Republicans, while Joe Miller is a dedicated Conservative who doesn't pussyfoot around with anyone.

Before either Party does something really stupid, both sides should sit down and reconcile with the facts of the matter. We're not on opposing sides, we're not enemies. We are in fact: friends, allies and ideological counterparts. And most importantly - we're all Republicans.

Joe Miller - 47,027 - 50.90%.
Murkowski - 45,359 - 49.10%.
Difference - 1,668 votes - 1.80%.

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Senator Murkowski Can Still Win in Alaska.

NEWSFLASH: Joe Miller is not the victor in Alaska.

For some unknown reason, everyone wants to declare Joe Miller the victor in Alaska, despite the fact that thousands of absentee ballots have yet to be counted, and thousands of absentee ballots have yet to arrive. Why is about everyone so eager to declare Miller the winner? It is not like we are in real danger of losing Alaska this November....to a Democrat.

According to Alaska's Board of Election's website, 100% of Precincts have reported their tallies to the secretary of state, and the election results are even tighter than it was yesterday morning:

Joe Miller - 47,027 - 50.90%.
Murkowski - 45,359 - 49.10%.
Difference - 1,668 votes - 1.80%.

At last count - 7,600 absentee ballots out of 16,000 requested have been returned, and Dave Dittman, a pollster out of Anchorage, put the number of GOP ballots at about 5,000. Meaning about 65% of all absentee ballots are Republican ballots, and that we can expect close to 10,000 GOP votes if 15,400 absentee's are returned. And so on and so forth.

As of now Ms.Murkowski needs 67% of all absentee's (out of 5,000), but when votes from really rural areas of the state, and Military votes from overseas trickle in, the necessary percentage of votes needed for victory in the Murkowski camp will slowly decline (say 10,000 GOP absentee's come in, Murkowski would only need to capture 59% of the uncounted vote).

This race is not over.

When the initial absentee's are counted on Tuesday, we will know more in regard's to who will win.





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Alaska does it again!

Never trust polling data in Alaska.

According to the latest count, as published on Alaska's Board of Election website, Senator Lisa Murkowski is trailing her GOP/Tea Party Primary opponent by 1,960 votes, with about 98% of Alaskan precincts reporting. Leaving this closer than expected Republican Primary to absentee voters:

Joe Miller - 45,909 - 51.09%.
Murkowski - 43,949 - 48.91%.

The Anchorage Daily News is reporting that 16,000 absentee ballots were requested before yesterday's historic vote, and that 7,600 have already been returned. Absentee votes will be counted three times over the next two weeks, and Murkowski needs to win about 64% of those votes in order to have any shot at victory.

Can anyone else believe how close it is in Alaska? Obviously Palin power is alive and well within Conservative Republican ranks in her own state, but I really do wonder if this flip flop will come back to maul her in the future.

Don't trust the polls in Alaska:

The polls predicted a Don Young loss in 2008, but he won by 5.2%.
The polls predicted a 18 point Stevens' loss, but he lost by just 1.2%.
The polls predicted a 30 point Murkowski win, but she trails by 1.1%.





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