Thursday, August 26, 2010

Senator Murkowski Can Still Win in Alaska.

NEWSFLASH: Joe Miller is not the victor in Alaska.

For some unknown reason, everyone wants to declare Joe Miller the victor in Alaska, despite the fact that thousands of absentee ballots have yet to be counted, and thousands of absentee ballots have yet to arrive. Why is about everyone so eager to declare Miller the winner? It is not like we are in real danger of losing Alaska this a Democrat.

According to Alaska's Board of Election's website, 100% of Precincts have reported their tallies to the secretary of state, and the election results are even tighter than it was yesterday morning:

Joe Miller - 47,027 - 50.90%.
Murkowski - 45,359 - 49.10%.
Difference - 1,668 votes - 1.80%.

At last count - 7,600 absentee ballots out of 16,000 requested have been returned, and Dave Dittman, a pollster out of Anchorage, put the number of GOP ballots at about 5,000. Meaning about 65% of all absentee ballots are Republican ballots, and that we can expect close to 10,000 GOP votes if 15,400 absentee's are returned. And so on and so forth.

As of now Ms.Murkowski needs 67% of all absentee's (out of 5,000), but when votes from really rural areas of the state, and Military votes from overseas trickle in, the necessary percentage of votes needed for victory in the Murkowski camp will slowly decline (say 10,000 GOP absentee's come in, Murkowski would only need to capture 59% of the uncounted vote).

This race is not over.

When the initial absentee's are counted on Tuesday, we will know more in regard's to who will win.


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