Burns Up in November Poll

Republican Tim Burns, who almost beat former John Murtha staffer Mark Critz for the PA-12 Congressional seat, is coming back strong. Burns suffered due to the Democratic Senate primary taking place on the same day, hurting him in the district where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. Despite that, Burns only lost by eight in a district where Murtha won handily in 2008.

New polling by PPP has Burns actually in the lead against Critz for the November contest:

Burns: 48%
Critz: 47%

I think that Burns might be able to pick Critz off on this one.


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Primary Day Review - May 18, 2010.

For all Conservative minded individuals; yesterday was pure hell watching the Pennsylvania and Kentucky Primaries, along with that special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district, which in the end proves that voters are still naive. There was little good news, but much heartache:

Kentucky

Rand Paul; the son of Congressman Ron Paul, whom I despise with a passion, defeated the Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson by 80,000 votes last night, receiving the GOP Nomination on a campaign that ran against the GOP platform on National Defense, and on Libertarian beliefs. This nomination will only help the Democrat candidate in November.

I would rather lose this seat in November, than to see this Isolationist dirtbag in Congress, or anywhere near there.

Pennsylvania

Pat Toomey had one definite path to victory: Senator Arlen Specter winning the Democratic Nomination. But that didn't happen last night - Congressman Sestak received the nomination without much problem, and the electoral chances of Pat Toomey are complicated for this November.

Pat Toomey will do a fine job campaigning against Joe Sestak, and with Senator Specter no longer in contention, the Republican vote should go to Toomey's campaign without problem, however, without having the "flip flopping" king of Pennsylvania as his opponent, things will become difficult.

Pennsylvania's 12th district

Mark Critz (D) - 71,684 - 53.4%
Tim Burns (R) - 59,476 - 44.3%
Demo Agoris (L) - 3,142 - 2.3%

Must I say more? Like Doug Hoffman, David Harmer, and James Tedisco before him, Tim Burns has lost with the complete backing of Conservative blogs and organizations. Momentum might be behind Republicans, but I just don't see it yet, especially in a district that John McCain won with ease in 2008.

Arkansas

Good news: Neither Senator Lincoln nor Lt. Governor Bill Halter received enough votes for the Democrat nomination last evening. Forcing the Democratic dogfight to continue for at least a few more weeks.

Great news: Congressman John Boozman was selected as the Republican Nominee with 53% of the vote. He's performing well against both his potential Democratic opponents in general election polls. For Arkansas Republicans this is excellent news, and should be celebrated.

Overall

Kentucky - We're screwed.
Pennsylvania - Tough general election upcoming.
Pennsylvania 12 - Naive Democratic addicts.
Arkansas - Good and Great news.

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BREAKING: Burns Cuts Critz Lead to 8%

Formerly down by 14%, Mark Critz's lead was slashed to 8% over Republican Tim Burns.

And the results look good for Burns:
http://jumpinginpools.blogspot.com/2010/05/results-from-pa-special-election.html

County Precincts M. Critz (Dem) T. Burns (GOP) D. Agoris (Lib) Total 420/597 48,482 53% 40,669 45% 1,950 2% Allegheny 7/7 519 58% 359 40% 23 3% Armstrong 22/41 1,934 43% 2,386 54% 137 3% Cambria 134/140 18,171 57% 13,285 42% 482 2% Fayette 39/77 4,345 61% 2,653 37% 132 2% Greene 44/44 5,164 57% 3,716 41% 224 2% Indiana 9/13 762 41% 1,034 56% 51 3% Somerset 23/26 3,631 49% 3,614 49% 118 2% Washington 36/100 3,700 49% 3,515 46% 349 5% Westmoreland 106/149 10,256 49% 10,107 49% 434 2%

Results from PA Special Election-- Counties Yet to Be Held

According to the current results from the PA-12 race, Burns is behind by 14% with 31% of the vote counted. One of those with 0% in yet is Somerset County. In 2008 McCain carried it 61%-31%. Results from Indiana County are only 3% but McCain won this area 53%-46%. Westmoreland County is only 2% in but McCain won there 58%-41%. Washington County is only 5% in, but again McCain won 52%-47%. Greene was a basic tie with McCain winning in a 49%-49% contest in 2008. In Fayette, where Critz has taken an early lead, McCain won 49%-48%.


So with many votes left to be counted, it looks like Burns is not out.
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Total 233/597 24,096 54% 19,265 43% 1,128 3% Allegheny 6/7 452 58% 304 39% 22 3% Armstrong 22/41 1,934 43% 2,386 54% 137 3% Cambria 75/140 8,769 59% 5,963 40% 252 2% Fayette 39/77 4,345 61% 2,653 37% 132 2% Greene 30/44 2,689 57% 1,921 41% 130 3% Indiana 4/13 604 40% 850 57% 42 3% Somerset 0/26 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% Washington 36/100 3,700 49% 3,515 46% 349 5% Westmoreland 21/149 1,603 48% 1,673 50% 64 2%

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Vote Burns!

Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district will be holding their special election this afternoon and evening; to replace Congressman John Murtha, who passed away earlier this year. Those "Bible thumping, gun clinging, all-american redneck" voters will be choosing between Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz, who are tied with one another according to a recent poll.

Despite its' historical record of being a Democratic bastion, Pennsylvania's 12th district voted for Senator McCain in November of 2008; becoming the only district in America to support McCain in 2008, which also supported Kerry in 2004. Not only that, but Tim Burns' campaign has been positively received in the Conservative minded district.

Tim Burns is an all-american, gun clinging, bible thumping, Conservative trumpeting-Republican who has a unique chance of overturning four decades of Democratic rule, such as Scott Brown did in Massachusetts. Tim Burns is not a "flipflop" Democrat like his opponent, he's a consistent man who will consistently stand for the people of his district.

As such; I'm calling on all voters in Pennsylvania's 12th district to support Tim Burns; an honest businessman who will represent his hometown district with pride, and who will provide backup to desperate Washington Republicans who need every single Conservative vote that they can get.

Support Tim Burns!

If you want real Conservative change; then individuals such as Tim Burns, Pat Toomey and Charles Djou must be supported. Doesn't matter where they reside, if Conservatism is on the ballot, they'll win.

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Prediction: Burns will win.

Republican businessman Tim Burn is running to replace Congressman John Murtha in the United States House of Representatives. A good number of Conservatives are hopeful about another Republican upset in a deep blue district, but if the statistics I presented earlier this morning are accurate: Tim Burns should win a close, close election.

As stated earlier this morning: Five special congressional elections were held in 2009, using information from four of them, an average of 59% of Republicans and just 42% of Democrats from November of 2008 returned to support their perspective candidate during the 2009 special elections; if all voters were down the line. Let's just assume for a little while.

Congressman Murtha was reelected with 155,268 votes in November of 2008, while William Russell, his strongest opponent in decades, received 113,120 votes, or about 40% of the vote. Now we know that Murtha was destined for an even closer 2010 election, that the President receives low marks from Murtha's longheld district, and that the Republican candidate has the early edge, but what does all of that mean without examining statistics.

Let us assume that all Murtha voters will support the Democratic nominee and that all Russell voters will support the Republican nominee during the special election in a few weeks, leaving this election to be a battle of enthusiasm and turnout. Assuming 42% of Murtha supporters and 59% of Russell supporters vote in a few weeks, Tim Burns will win, by just 1,529 votes.

To be exact: Tim Burns will receive 66,741 votes and Mark Critz will receive 65,212, assuming that all Murtha and Russell voters will vote the same, and that the Libertarian candidate does not screw things up for Conservatives. I know that this model is unpredictable and unlikely, but if Murtha and Russell voters are 100% behind the line supporters of their respective parties, than Burns will need 17% more of Russell's voting bloc to turnout again.

I guarantee Tim Burns will win, by how much we shall see, but please keep my prediction in mind as well as the Return Vote Average, which I should trademark before someone steals my idea.

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Republicans returned in 2009, what about 2010?

Five special congressional elections were held last year: From California's 10th district to Illinois' 5th district to New York's 23rd district. All five of the special elections were won by Democrats, but Republicans had a higher "return voting" percentage, which could indicate a few close special elections within the next few weeks.

California's 10th congressional district

2008 - Democrat candidate: 192,226. Republican candidate: 91,877.
2009 - Democrat candidate: 72,817. Republican candidate: 59,017.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 37.9%. Republican line: 62.2%.

Illinois' 5th congressional district

2008 - Democrat candidate: 170,728. Republican candidate: 50,881.
2009 - Democrat candidate: 30,561. Republican candidate: 10,622.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 17.9%. Republican line: 20.9%.

New York's 20th congressional district

2008 - Democrat candidate: 177,677. Republican candidate: 109,644.
2009 - Democrat candidate: 80,833. Republican candidate: 80,107.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 45.5%. Republican line: 73%.

New York's 23rd congressional district

2008 - Republican candidate: 129,991. Democrat candidate: 69,112.
2009 - Republican candidates: 78,135. Democrat candidate: 73,137.
Return Vote - Republican lines: 78%. Democrat line: 106%.

Total United States Average (based on districts mentioned)

2008 - Democrat candidates: 609,753. Republican candidates: 382,323.
2009 - Democrat candidates: 257,348. Republican candidates: 227,881.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 42%. Republican line: 59%.

59% of Republican voters (assuming all voters voted the same) returned during the 2009 special elections in California, Illinois, and New York, but only 42% of Democratic voters returned in 2010, even in steadfast Democratic districts; our Republican candidates increased their margins.

If the national "Return Vote" average remains the same in Hawaii and Pennsylvania this month, or the "Return Vote" margin remains the same, we could be looking at a Congressman Djou from Hawaii and a Congressman Burns from Pennsylvania. Turnout and politics could play a factor and my statistics are far from Biblical acceptance, but they prove one thing: Republicans are looking at a good year.

Our candidates are pumped. Our voters are out there. Our onceheld districts, could be ours once again.

Thoughts?

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