Saturday, May 1, 2010

Prediction: Burns will win.

Republican businessman Tim Burn is running to replace Congressman John Murtha in the United States House of Representatives. A good number of Conservatives are hopeful about another Republican upset in a deep blue district, but if the statistics I presented earlier this morning are accurate: Tim Burns should win a close, close election.

As stated earlier this morning: Five special congressional elections were held in 2009, using information from four of them, an average of 59% of Republicans and just 42% of Democrats from November of 2008 returned to support their perspective candidate during the 2009 special elections; if all voters were down the line. Let's just assume for a little while.

Congressman Murtha was reelected with 155,268 votes in November of 2008, while William Russell, his strongest opponent in decades, received 113,120 votes, or about 40% of the vote. Now we know that Murtha was destined for an even closer 2010 election, that the President receives low marks from Murtha's longheld district, and that the Republican candidate has the early edge, but what does all of that mean without examining statistics.

Let us assume that all Murtha voters will support the Democratic nominee and that all Russell voters will support the Republican nominee during the special election in a few weeks, leaving this election to be a battle of enthusiasm and turnout. Assuming 42% of Murtha supporters and 59% of Russell supporters vote in a few weeks, Tim Burns will win, by just 1,529 votes.

To be exact: Tim Burns will receive 66,741 votes and Mark Critz will receive 65,212, assuming that all Murtha and Russell voters will vote the same, and that the Libertarian candidate does not screw things up for Conservatives. I know that this model is unpredictable and unlikely, but if Murtha and Russell voters are 100% behind the line supporters of their respective parties, than Burns will need 17% more of Russell's voting bloc to turnout again.

I guarantee Tim Burns will win, by how much we shall see, but please keep my prediction in mind as well as the Return Vote Average, which I should trademark before someone steals my idea.

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