Will North Carolina Swing Back to GOP in 2012?

North Carolina was one of the hardest pills to swallow on election night in 2008. It wasn't that we lost, but that we lost by 14,000 votes, and that a former Republican Representative of 4 terms was the reason we lost. Bob Barr, running on the Libertarian Party ticket received over 25,000 votes in the State, votes that would have otherwise gone for McCain.

It absolutely sucked. Republicans not only failed to win North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, but we also failed to regain the Governor's Mansion, and to reelect Senator Elizabeth Dole. Local news organizations gave all the credit to Black voters, who supported Barack Obama by a 19:1 ratio.

However, times have changed. Barack Obama's disapproval rating is up to 55%, Senator Richard Burr's reelection numbers are looking strong at 54%, and at least three Congressional Democrats, especially one Representative by the name of Bob Etheridge, are facing serious Republican challengers.

Does this mean the eventual Republican Nominee is a lock to win the State back in 2012? No it doesn't, but it does mean that Obama's 2008 Southern success was not a shift in long term ideological or political demographics in the South. Rather, it was representative of highly motivated black voters, a trend that is not going to last.

Thoughts?





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Fiorina Opens Lead on Boxer

In the wake of last week's debate, Republican Carly Fiorina has opened a tiny lead over four-term incumbent Barbara Boxer in the California Senate race. Consensus in the political community is that Fiorina beat Boxer in the debate, casting her in a Senatorial light. The newest poll seems to back that up.

Fiorina (R): 48%
Boxer * (D): 47
Other/und: 5%
* Denotes incumbent

Considering the anti-incumbent mood in the country coupled with the anti-Democrat wave coming in November, Fiorina has positioned herself very well. Boxer may be the largest prize in the race to take back the Senate-- and her loss will be her own elitist fault.

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Castle Up Big in Delaware

For all of the wrangling over whether or not Representative Mike Castle should receive the GOP nomination for the Senate, he appears to be still cruising in the polls. If the Republicans want to retake the Senate the seat in Delaware is almost invariably important.

Castle (R): 48%
Coons (D): 37%
Other/und: 15%

Castle has this race in the bag, especially when you factor in the big GOP wave this year. Hopefully it will put us one step closer to 51 seats.

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Interview With Bill Randall for Congress (NC-13)

Jumping in Pools is proud to present interview number 116 in our ongoing series. Today we are fortunate enough to be interviewing GOP candidate for the House of Representative Bill Randall, from North Carolina's 13th Congressional District. Mr. Randall is a veteran of the armed forces and faces Democrat Brad Miller in the fall elections.




1. Why are you the best candidate for your district?

I intend to listen to the constituents, research the issue thoroughly, and vote according to sound principles that best represent the voters. My military and business experience will enable me to bring a measure of leadership that is critical for a U.S. Representative.

2. What is the #1 priority you would tackle for the people of North Carolina?

Jobs (in the private sector) and revitalizing the economy.

3. Do you support repealing/rewriting the recently passed Health Care Reform bill?

If this bill was passed on the basis of truth (and not deception), actually cuts costs as promised, and delivers an improvement of overall health care to the country... why would I want to have it repealed? But on the other hand, if it was fraudulent legislation, increases the financial burden on the American people, and does NOT improve the overall health care of the country (as we were told it did) ...I will lead the charge to repeal the bill.

4. Has President Obama been better/worse than you expected?

President Obama has not delivered on the promises he made while running for office. He has done nothing to veto (stop) the terrible legislation that the majority party has passed in the past 18 months (against the will of most Americans). In this respect, I’d have to say that President Obama’s performance has been disappointing.

5. What has been your proudest moment in public service?

Serving on active duty in the United States Navy. While on active duty, I was most proud of having been selected to serve as a Command Master Chief aboard a guided missile cruiser: USS Leyte Gulf (CG 55) in the year 2000.

6. When did you decide to run for Congress?

My decision to run was made after my wife and I prayed about it in June 2009.

7. Anything else you'd like to add?

I hope that the voters support a candidate on the merits of their candidacy… instead of their political party. If a fair and honest comparison is made, most will find me to be a person who will represent their interests in Washington D.C. better than my political opponent. Thank you.

http://www.randallforcongress.com/

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Dino Rossi continues to lead Pat Murray.

According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, Republican Dino Rossi is leading Democratic Senator Patty Murray by 2% in Washington's red hot senatorial race. This is the first time since early-to-mid July that Mr.Rossi has come ahead in Rasmussen polling, even though SurveyUSA has him in the lead as of two weeks ago by 7%.

Rasmussen Survey of 750 Washington Likely Voters:
Dino Rossi (R) - 48%.
Pat Murray (D) - 46%.
Undecided voters - 6%.

Not good news for the 18 year Senator, especially when you consider her two-month long lead over Dino Rossi in Rasmussen polls, and the fact that 50% of Washington voters now disapprove of President Obama, who won their state by almost 20% in 2008. It appears Conservatism is overtaking the Pacific North West (Joe Miller in Alaska, Chris Dudley in Oregon, and Dino Rossi in Washington).

Any thoughts?





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Toomey Lead Opens to 10%

Some more good news for Pat Toomey, who recently expanded his lead over Democrat Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The good news is that that lead expanded yet again, this time to a full ten percent. This is certainly not only news for the fact that Toomey appears to be surging but Sestak is flailing. The poll is from Reuters (be careful, PDF file). A similar Rasmussen poll out today has Toomey leading by 6%.

Reuters
Toomey (R): 47%
Sestak (D): 37%
Other/und: 16%

Rasmussen

Toomey (R): 48%

Sestak (D): 42%

Other/und: 10%

The Reuters poll is a bit suspect for the simple fact that their undecideds are 60% higher than Rasmussen. This implies that polling all adults is not as accurate as Rasmussen's likely voters metric. Both polls show Toomey with similar support, pushing near 50%, showing that Sestak has to win nearly all of the undecided voters to pull ahead. Unfortunately for him, that looks increasingly unlikely.

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Brewer Opens Solid Lead in AZ Governor's Race

Jan Brewer's political future seemed murky just six months ago. She was not elected to the office and there was talk about a challenge against her from the Republican Party. Now she appears almost inevitable to win another term in Arizona.

Brewer * (R): 57%
Goddard (D): 38%
Other/und: 5%
* Denotes incumbent

The poll is from Rasmussen, and as I always write, it is the most accurate national pollster. It appears that not only is Brewer's support growing but Goddard's is weakening. The low number of undecideds certainly does not help Goddard, who could win all of them and still get crushed. Turnout might be high on both sides-- as should be expected with such a contentious issue as immigration involved in a border state.

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Buck Up by Four in CO

Republican Ken Buck has taken a lead in the Senate race in Colorado. While Buck has had a narrow lead in the past, it appears that it may be widening. Buck is looking to defeat Obama-backed Michael Bennet. Bennet is also an incumbent and is big on the GOP take-over list. This lead appears to be good news. The numbers below include leaners:

Buck (R): 49%
Bennet * (D): 45%
Und/other: 6%
* Denotes incumbent

This poll is from Rasmussen, the most accurate national pollster around. It also appears to be bad news for the Democrats in that formerly solid-GOP Colorado is moving back to the red after voting for Barack Obama in 2008.

The low number of undecided voters appear to be helping Buck-- even if Bennet picked up 2/3 of these voters he would still lose narrowly.

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Rossi leads Murray in Washington by 7%.

WOW:

Dino Rossi (R) - 52%.
Pat Murray (D) - 45%.
Undecided voters - 3%.
* Denotes Incumbent

I knew that Washington's Primary results on Tuesday meant Mr.Rossi was on the correct path, but I didn't know he was actually on a winning path this early in the general election. 90% of all Republican voters support his campaign, along with about 60% of Independents - that is simply amazing to see in a state like Washington. We have to remember that Rossi virtually won the Governor's race in 2004 and still has a high level of support and credibility in this Pacific Northwest state.

Check out all of our recent polling analysis including Arkansas Incumbent Dem Blanche Lincoln down 38%.

Defeating Senator Murray is no longer a question of maybe, but by how much. Especially when you consider that her campaign is trailing to Dino Rossi among voters aged 18-49, a crucial bloc of votes in a state where 52% of voters are under the age of 50. Also, Mr.Rossi leads both voters who have graduated college (51%), and who have not graduated from college (49%).

RELATED: Our expose on Obama's State Senate records!

Thoughts?

Note - 51% of Washington voters are college graduates, while 49% are not. Sorry if any confusion came from my initial post.

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Dino Rossi slaughters Clint Didier in Washington Primary.

Washington State held their unusual Primary vote yesterday, one in which all of the Democratic, Republican, and Independent candidates square off against one-another in a top 2 primary, and the candidates, regardless of political affiliation, who have the two highest vote totals when the day is over, will face off in November.

The results were not good for either Senator Murray or Clint Didier:

Patty Murray (D) - 433,211 - 46.04%
Dino Rossi (R) - 319,708 - 33.98%.
Clint Didier (R) - 112,774 - 11.99%.
Paul Akers (R) - 23,889 - 2.54%.
Charles Allen (D) - 7,973 - 0.85%.

Ouch.

Dino Rossi, the mainstream Republican candidate in the Primary defeated Mr.Didier, who can only be kindly described as Libertarian, by a margin of over 200,000 votes. Obviously Sarah's power (Mrs.Palin endorsed Didier over Rossi) doesn't have a significant impact with the voters of Washington State.

However, the results were even worse for Senator Pat Murray, as not even 50% of all voters in the State of Washington supported her in a Primary dominated by Republican infighting. And when you breakdown the results by political affiliation, Republicans are no longer the minority party in a certain deep blue state.

Republican Party (6 candidates) - 496,364 - 49.89%
Democratic Party (5 candidates) - 456,290 - 48.50%
Independents/Other (4 candidates) - 15,236 - 1.62%

I'm hopeful that Dino Rossi can unite all 496,364 Washington State voters who supported one of six Republican Party candidates behind his crucial Senatorial campaign, and that his campaign will add even more voters by November, in what is one of the most important races of 2010.

Any thoughts?

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Republicans Up by 7 in Gallup Polls

 The GOP has moved into a firm lead, according to Gallup's polling for the Fall election. According to its 2010 polls, it's the largest lead that the Republican party has ever received in a midterm generic ballot.


Republican Party: 50%
Democratic Party: 43%
Other/und: 7%

With the Republicans at 50%, it effectively means that the Democrats cannot make up the differents with just undecided voters. It also means that the GOP advantage may be larger because the Gallup poll only asked registered voters, not just those most likely to vote like Rasmussen does. Rasmussen has the GOP up by a shocking 12%.

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Feingold Continues to Trail in Wisconsin Race.

Democratic Senator Russ Feingold continues to trail rightwing Republican Businessman Ron Johnson in the state of Wisconsin, according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports. Johnson is a lifelong man of business, and his unexpected strength against Senator Feingold, a lifelong politician from a state that is definitely progressive, has been well documented by Jumping in Pools over the past few months (last link is to latest poll):

June 22 - Feingold vs. Johnson:

Russ Feingold (D) - 46%.
Ron Johnson (R) - 45%.
Other/Undecided - 9%.

July 29 - Feingold vs. Johnson:

Ron Johnson (R) - 48%.
Russ Feingold (D) - 46%.
Other/Undecided - 6%.

August 11 - Feingold vs. Johnson:

Ron Johnson (R) - 47%.
Russ Feingold (D) - 46%.
Other/Undecided - 7%.

As you can see, Senator Feingold's support hasn't increased or decreased in two months, while Mr.Johnson's support has remained the same, besides for a few fence sitters that are currently leaning in his direction. And with the election just under 12 weeks/3 months from now, both Senator Feingold and Mr.Johnson should beg for a major/huge scandal to break, or else the results of this election cannot and will not be known until election night.

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Complete 2010 Senate Rankings - August of 2010.

The November elections are now just 12 weeks away, and with that little time separating voters from a frustrating summer to a jubilant ballot box, the polls are burning every minute of the day and there's too much news to comprehend. However, we can all agree on one thing - Democrats have the most to lose, especially in the United States Senate.

The voters will be electing 37 Senator's in November, 19 of those seats are Democrat controlled and 18 are Republican controlled as of this August morning, but that will all change in just a few more weeks. In fact, I have been reading the polls and digesting the primaries, and I feel that I have a good pulse of the upcoming elections, thus I** offer the following 2010 US Senate rankings with extreme prejudice.

These rankings are based on solid Senate seats (100% sure to go Republican or Democrat), leaning Senate seats (75% sure to go either Republican or Democrat, pending on which way the political winds are blowing), and toss up Senate seats (pure political unknowns; grab a bag of popcorn and enjoy).

Solid Democratic seats - 7

Connecticut - Open seat (D).
Hawaii - Senator Inouye (D).
Maryland - Senator Mikulski (D).
New York 1 - Senator Schumer (D).
Oregon - Senator Wyden (D).
Vermont - Senator Leahy (D).
West Viringia - Open seat (D).

Leaning Democratic seats - 5

California - Senator Boxer (D).
Colorado - Senator Bennet (D).
Nevada - Senator Reid (D)*.
New York 2 - Senator Gillibrand (D).
Washington - Senator Murray (D).

Toss us seats - 6

Florida - Open seat (R).
Illinois - Open seat (D).
Missouri - Open seat (R).
Ohio - Open seat (R).
Pennsylvania - Open seat (D).
Wisconsin - Senator Feingold (D).

Leaning Republican seats - 6

Alaska - Senator Murkowski (R).
Delaware - Open seat (D).
Indiana - Open seat (D).
Kentucky - Open seat (R).
New Hampshire - Open seat (R).
North Carolina - Senator Burr (R).

Solid Republican seats - 13

Alabama - Senator Shelby (R).
Arkansas - Senator Lincoln (D).
Arizona - Senator McCain (R).
Georgia - Senator Isakson (R).
Idaho - Senator Crapo (R).
Iowa - Senator Grassley (R).
Kansas - Open seat (R).
Louisiana - Senator Vitter (R).
North Dakota - Open seat (D).
Oklahoma - Senator Coburn (R).
South Carolina - Senator DeMint (R).
South Dakota - Senator Thune (R).
Utah - Open seat (R).

As it stands........

Senate Democrats will retain 12 seats, and lose 4 seats.
Senate Republicans will retain 15 seats, and gain 4 seats.
6 Senate seats are undecided - 3 Democrat, 3 Republican.

* - Reid has taken a lead in the polls, though Angle can reverse it.
** - I do apologize for the excessive use of "I" in the second paragraph.





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Hayworth trails Democrat opponent in Arizona.

Supporters of Senator John McCain often tout his fiscal discipline, his record on National Defense and our Troops, and his common Conservatism that has led to a 81% rating from the ACU. But, I have a feeling that McCainiacs will soon be adding Only McCain Can Win Arizona in their touted reasons.

According to a new poll from Ramussen Reports, Senator John McCain is leading his potential Democratic opponent by close to 20%. However, McCain's Republican foe, JD Hayworth, trails their common Democratic opponent by 5%, and close to 30% of pro-McCain voters obviously will not support Hayworth if he is the eventual Republican Nominee (at least for now).

Rasmussen Reports Survey of 500 Likely Voters:

Sen. John McCain (R) - 53%.
Rodney Glassman (D) - 34%.
Some other candidate - 11%.
Not Sure - 3%.

Rodney Glassman (D) - 43%.
Rep. JD Hayworth (R) - 38%.
Some other candidate - 13%.
Not Sure - 6%.

This poll is shocking. I have always figured that if Hayworth were to beat McCain, that at least the Senate seat would remain in Republican hands and that we would have a National Defense supporter oncemore. That last part now means nothing, because Hayworth cannot win, McCain can, and only McCain will.

What's your choice: Victory or Defeat?

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The power of George W. Bush.

Hat Tip -Doug Powers.

I've come to the conclusion that former President George W. Bush is the most powerful man in the entire world, and he doesn't even know it. Over the past few years I've heard that George W. Bush, who seems just like a regular guy from Texas, has used his superman powers to cause hurricanes, earthquakes, and even snowstorms.

The power of hick Texans is astronomical!

When President George W. Bush left the White House 18 months ago, most expected his superman powers, besides for causing Al Gore to divorce Tipper, would be of no further use. However, it appears the superman President has a new weapon to wreck havoc in the world:

That's right! According to some Conservative bloggers, the pre-release "leakings" of his Book to the Main Stream Media will cause Republican candidates across the Nation to lose, because just the mention of the superman President will cause fear to spread across the US and will send all voters back to the Hope and Change Express.

I'm not kidding, some members of the Conservative blogosphere are actually accusing George W. Bush of planning to release information to the Press regarding his memoir/book before the mid-term elections, in order to hurt Republican chances at the voting booth.

Paranoia or what?

Goodness! George W. Bush is a lifelong Republican, and trust me, he is more than aware of the fact that Republican candidates will be distancing their campaigns from him, even though polls have indicated Bush's approval rating has gone up from basement levels, voters are split 50-50 as to whether America would be better with a Bush or Obama White House, and billboards with Bush's face have appeared across the Nation in support of him.

If Republicans fail to recapture the House this November, it's their fault, not President Bush's.



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Angle Up by Seven

A new poll places Sharron Angle seven points ahead of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The poll was conducted by Rasmussen, the most accurate of all of the national pollsters. Nevada is part of the libertarian West, so Angle's non-statist arguments are helping her instead of hurting her such as Rand Paul in Kentucky. The poll results show Angle keeping up the lead even after her post-primary bounce was over. Not only this, but Reid is hovering around 40%-- a bad sign for an incumbent.

Angle (R): 48%
Reid (D): 41%
Other/und: 11%

Considering that this late in the game undecideds tend to break for the challenger, this is certainly bad news for Harry. If they break at the traditional 2/3-1/3 ratio, Angle will have about 55% to Reid's 45%. Barring any sort of scandal on Angle's part or a catastrophic debate, Reid's in big trouble.

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Crist Leading by 11%

Saw this poll linked from HotAir.... According to a new Florida Chamber of Commerce ad current Governor and Senate hopeful is beating both Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek. This comes as word has leaked out that the Democrats may back Crist if someone other than Meek gets the nod in the primary.

Crist (I): 42%
Rubio (R): 31%
Meek (D): 14%

Of course, this leaves 15% of others/don't knows, which is a lot of ground for Crist to defend. What will be really interesting is if the Democratic establishment decides to back the moderate Crist to prevent a solid conservative like Rubio from getting the nod.

Also check out a poll about Obamacare.

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GOP Leads in Colorado

Another possible Republican pickup that hasn't received too much attention is the race in Colorado. Incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet trails his Republican challenger according to a Denver Post poll.

Buck (R): 46%
Bennet (D): 43%

A similar Rasmussen poll has the GOP up by five. As a matter of fact, all of the recent polling in CO has the GOP making a lot of inroads, considering how the Dems thought that the Republican Party would be in the descendancy in the West.

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Etheridge Falls Behind in New Poll

North Carolina Congressman Bob Etheridge is in some hot water for his manhandling of some students doing a documentary in Washington DC. The video has gone viral and has apparently damaged his credibility quite a bit. According to a recently completed poll, the people in his district were not too impressed.

Ellmers (R): 39
Etheridge (D): 38
Rose (Libertarian): 12

Needless to say, polling under 40% is nearly political suicide for an incumbent. Ellmers is relatively unknown and Etheridge seems to have alienated so many voters that double digits are willing to go third party. Yikes.

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Grassley in Comfortable Lead in IA

Democrats would like to retire long-time Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa. Considering that the mostly rural state flipped to Barack Obama's column in 2008, it was not out of the realm of possibilities. However, a new Rasmussen poll has Grassley ahead by double digits.

Grassley's above 50% and his Democratic rival doesn't even reach 40%. Good news all around.

Grassley 54
Conlin 37
Und 8


Republican hold.

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