Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Fiorina Opens Lead on Boxer

In the wake of last week's debate, Republican Carly Fiorina has opened a tiny lead over four-term incumbent Barbara Boxer in the California Senate race. Consensus in the political community is that Fiorina beat Boxer in the debate, casting her in a Senatorial light. The newest poll seems to back that up.

Fiorina (R): 48%
Boxer * (D): 47
Other/und: 5%
* Denotes incumbent

Considering the anti-incumbent mood in the country coupled with the anti-Democrat wave coming in November, Fiorina has positioned herself very well. Boxer may be the largest prize in the race to take back the Senate-- and her loss will be her own elitist fault.

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Castle Up Big in Delaware

For all of the wrangling over whether or not Representative Mike Castle should receive the GOP nomination for the Senate, he appears to be still cruising in the polls. If the Republicans want to retake the Senate the seat in Delaware is almost invariably important.

Castle (R): 48%
Coons (D): 37%
Other/und: 15%

Castle has this race in the bag, especially when you factor in the big GOP wave this year. Hopefully it will put us one step closer to 51 seats.

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Saturday, September 4, 2010

Obama Approval Drops Near New Low

Rasmussen Reports is showing President Obama's approval rating near its lowest level yet. Rasmussen tends to be the most accurate of the major pollsters due to its habit of polling likely voters rather than just the population at large. According to the news, it's not good for the White House. Back in June the numbers dipped to a 41-52% tick. Today it's not much better.

Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 56%

This also shows no substantive bounce from the Iraq speech. With the unemployment rate going back up expect the numbers to sag further, especially if Obama keeps wanting to change the focus.

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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Toomey Lead Opens to 10%

Some more good news for Pat Toomey, who recently expanded his lead over Democrat Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The good news is that that lead expanded yet again, this time to a full ten percent. This is certainly not only news for the fact that Toomey appears to be surging but Sestak is flailing. The poll is from Reuters (be careful, PDF file). A similar Rasmussen poll out today has Toomey leading by 6%.

Reuters
Toomey (R): 47%
Sestak (D): 37%
Other/und: 16%

Rasmussen

Toomey (R): 48%
Sestak (D): 42%
Other/und: 10%


The Reuters poll is a bit suspect for the simple fact that their undecideds are 60% higher than Rasmussen. This implies that polling all adults is not as accurate as Rasmussen's likely voters metric. Both polls show Toomey with similar support, pushing near 50%, showing that Sestak has to win nearly all of the undecided voters to pull ahead. Unfortunately for him, that looks increasingly unlikely.

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Some Looks at Democrats' Ads

Take a look at these three ads by "Democrats" touting how they voted against Obama's initiatives:







Not too bad, for people in the DNC.


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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Hagel Backs Sestak

Joe Sestak's campaign has been going through a bit of a rough patch, falling behind Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate Race. Sestak had a fair share of momentum after his dramatic defeat of incumbent Arlen Specter in the primary. However, with the potential pay-for-no-play scandal and weak campaigning, Sestak has fallen behind.

But now former Republican Senator and Vietnam veteran Chuck Hagel has endorsed him. It's not certain how much effect this will have on the race, but it is likely to be muted. Hagel was an anti-war critic of the Iraq conflict and famously did not endorse either John McCain or Barack Obama in 2008.

The men are seeking the seat long held by Sen. Arlen Specter, a Republican-turned-Democrat whom Sestak beat in the primary.
Hagel plans to announce his endorsement Tuesday at news conferences with Sestak in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
I guess then we'll see what the effects are in the future. However, Hagel is old news and may not do much for Sestak.

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Perry Up Over White

Rick Perry's political future was not looking too bright earlier this year. A target of Republicans and Democrats both, Perry was looking for a third term in a year of anti-incumbency. Still, he has warded off a challenge from Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson and is now leading against his Democratic rival, according to a new Rasmussen poll.

Perry* (R): 49%
White (D): 41%
Other/und: 10%
* Denotes incumbent

Rasmussen is the most accurate of all of the major pollsters. This shows a trend of voters moving closer to Perry. Perry won comfortably in 2002 but received less than 40% in a messy 2006 election. It looks like voters are still not comfortable with White so they are sticking with what they know.

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Saturday, August 21, 2010

Memo to Sarah Palin: Keep Todd at Distance.

Sarah Palin is a Conservative Republican. No questions asked.

Her husband, Todd Palin? That's another story altogether.

Mr.Palin was registered as a member of the Alaskan Independence Party for seven years (1995 through 2002), and though this wasn't a huge issue during the 2008 election, it does speak some volumes as to what Mr.Palin politically believes. You see, the AIP was founded as an very extreme pro-secessionist organization by Joe Vogler, and though their membership has moderated from that original stance over the decades, many within have not, which lead to Governor Hickel leaving the party back in 1994.

Did you get that? A year after Governor Hickel left the Party (he was and is the only Governor to ever be elected in Alaska on a third party ticket), due to lingering secessionists attempting to have another vote on Alaskan statehood, Todd Palin became a voting member of the Party, and only left in July of 2002, when his wife was running for the GOP Nomination in the Lt. Governor race.

Keep in mind that this post has nothing to do with Sarah Palin. I love the woman, I believe she is a damn fine American, and would definitely vote for her to become our 45th President of the United States, but she should keep her husband at arm's length when endorsing/supporting candidates. As a lot of potential Democratic and Republican opponents could use Todd Palin's questionable background to destroy a whole bastion of Republican candidates who Sarah Palin endorsed.

So I have this memo for Governor Palin: Keep Todd at a Distance when supporting Republicans for public office, and please do not let him publicly endorse/support the candidates that you do, as I can guarantee that smart opponents, whether they be Democrat or Republican, will only go after the endorsed candidate, and your husband as anti-american loons.

Any thoughts?

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Sunday, August 8, 2010

Burr Up Big in North Carolina

Republican Richard Burr is leading in the race to keep his Senate seat in North Carolina against challenger Elaine Marshall. According to the newest Rasmussen poll, Burr appears to be pulling away from his opponent, who thought she could cash in after Republican Elizabeth Dole was knocked out in the freak 2008 election.

Burr* (R): 49%
Marshall (D): 40%
Other/und: 11%
*-- denotes incumbent

It is notable that Burr does not poll over 50%, which is a potentially bad sign. However, considering that undecided voters tend to break against the incumbent 2-1, Burr still winds up with about 54% to Marshall's 46%-- a relatively comfortable number for reelection and better than his 52%-47% win in 2004 against Democrat Erskine Bowles.



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Monday, July 19, 2010

Obama Approval in AZ at 28%

President Obama has apparently set out to make angry every subset of voters, whether they be conservatives, moderates, or even liberals. In Arizona, this strategy appears to be uniting Americans like never before.

Approve of Job:

Republicans: 8%
Democrats: 52%
Independents: 22%

The Democratic approval in the state is only 52%. This would be an okay number for the entire population, but instead even his base is running away.

Basically, 90+% of Republicans are pissed at him over various things, as are 75% of independents, while almost 50% of Democrats believe his fumbled the Arizona immigration law.

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Monday, June 14, 2010

Haley Up More than 20%

Republican Gubernatorial candidate in South Carolina Nikki Haley has jumped out to a more than 20% lead in a bid to replace disgraced governor Mark Sanford. This comes after Haley was forced into a runoff race with a SC Congressman after polling 49%.

This poll comes from Rasmussen, the most accurate of the polling firms out there. Rasmussen had the most accurate polls in the 2004 and 2008 presidential race.

Haley: 55%
Sheheen: 34%

This does come after the primaries, so Haley could have a jump from this. However, with her hard campaigning and South Carolina's conservative disposition, I expect her to win by at least 15%.

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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Obama Approval in Florida at 40%

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, President Obama's approval rating in Flordia has fallen dramatically. As reported by Real Clear Politics, Obama had a 50% rating in April. Currently, his approval stacks up like this:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove.

He needs to get busy quick if he wants to salvage his ratings in this important swing state. Chances are that the oil spill isn't helping his ratings either. Furthermore, he's making a trip to the Gulf next week, so let's see how that goes.

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Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Interview with Joe C. of JiP

Jumping in Pools is proud to present interview number 96 in our ongoing series. Today we're interviewing Joe C., one of our top writers for our blog. Joe's been with us for over a year and a half and was the second contributor to our site.

1. Would you vote for Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee over President Obama in the 2012 elections?

The short answer is probably not.  Other than Mitch Daniels, the current governor of Indiana, I don't see any compelling Republican candidates for the 2012 election.  I think the 2012 election will be for Republicans what the 2004 election was for the Democrats: a mediocre group of candidates trying to unseat an average President  at best.  In 2004, I supported John Kerry because I loathed George W. Bush and would have supported anyone who was not Bush.  Although Obama has made a fair share of mistakes, I like him enough to vote him for a second term.  That said, I would vote any Republican who I found compelling. However, at this stage, I do think Romney or Huckabee would gain my support for 2012.  I will do my best to lay out my misgivings on both of those candidates below.

For Mitt Romney, I would state that his too much of a flip-flopper and a panderer.  Earlier in his political career, he supported both abortion rights and gay rights.  Now, he is pandering to the Republican base and is now against these positions.  Even more damaging, the health care bill that he signed into law as governor of Massachusetts looks pretty similar to Obama's health care bill.  He is trying to distance himself from Obama's bill, but that too will come back to haunt him.  In passing, he seems to me like a pragmatic moderate passing off as the heir to Ronald Reagan

Huckabee is a more intriguing pick for the 2012 election.  He seems like he is a likable person on TV.  However, some of his statements concern me.  He has made a couple of controversial statements on AIDS and gays.  Also, Huckabee has called for the US to pull out of the United Nations.  If he actually believes these statements, he cannot get my vote for the 2012 election. 

 2. How would you describe the Administration's response to the Gulf oil spill so far?

While I am frustrated at Obama's response to the oil spill, I do not know what more the Administration can do to help the oil spill.  While I would like the government to take charge of the oil spill cleanup, it does not have the equipment and the technical know-how to do so; BP does. 

 3. Do you approve of President 
Obama's handling of foreign policy?

 Yes, I approve of Obama's handling of foreign policy.  Obama has done everything he can to protect Americans.  He has increased troop presence in Afghanistan and has only gradually drawn down the troop levels in Afghanistan.  Drone attacks in Pakistan have also increased while his time in office.
I also disagree with many of the critics of Obama's foreign policy.  I agree with IBM's handling of the fallout from the disputed election from Iran; he was right to not interfere due the fact any intervention on the part of Obama would have only enabled Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the hard-line mullahs.  Obama was also right to cancel missile defense systems in Czech Republic and Poland.  These programs were not necessary and also gave the US more diplomatic standing with Russia.

I think the biggest national security and foreign policy blunder on the part of Obama so far has been his handling of the failed Christmas Day bombing attempt.  That said, I think Obama has done a good job in his handling of foreign policy.

4. Has Obama been better or worse than you expected?

About the same.  

 
5. What are some good political sites out there?

The two sites that most come to mind are FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics.  FiveThirtyEight has interesting analysis and projections of political races across the country.  Although person running the site, Nate Silver, is a Liberal, he is fair in his predictions.  Real Clear Politics is a site that provides links to articles on both sides of the political aisle and also provides poll averages for political races.
As for blogs and columnists, I think there some good ones out there.  On the right, I would recommend George Will, Ross Douthat, Conor Friedersdorf, and David Frum.  For a more orthodox and hawkish view from the right, I would probably go with Townhall.  For the left, I would recommend Ta-Nehisi Coates, Glen Greenwald, Matthew Yglesias, and the New Republic site as a whole.  Also, I recommend Andrew Sullivan, even though I think he is too harsh on Israel and pushes wacky conspiracy theories about Sarah Palin. 
For pure political craziness, I would recommend World Net Daily.

6. Do you see the Korean ship crisis escalating?

Anything from the North Koreans would not surprise me.  Kim-Jong Il is too crazy and irrational.  Because of that, I have no idea what to expect going foward.

7. Anything else you'd like to add?

No



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Friday, June 4, 2010

Interview With the Upstate Political Report

Jumping in Pools is proud to present interview number 95 in our ongoing series. Today we're interviewing Sam, the creator of the Upstate Political Report, which is geared towards covering races in Upstate New York from a conservative angle. If you want to see red in a blue, blue state, check out the status of the races and make sure that you bookmark. Mr. K and I will be contributing articles to the Report and strongly urge you to check it early and often.

1. When and why did you decide to create the Upstate Political Report?

It’s been a work in progress for some time.  I’ve always wanted to blog about local politics and when I first started blogging about a year and half ago, I originally decided against it. Very few exclusively cover local politics because the reading audience is so small and so is the local blogging community.  You almost have to resign yourself to the fact that you will go unnoticed.

However, last fall I decided to cover a few posts on the local 29th congressional district and do my part for covering the 2010 congressional elections.  Back in October I blogged a post about Eric Massa and Tom Reed in NY’s 29th congressional district, which was well received due to google searches.  I realized that the opportunity in the blogosphere is in local searchers looking up the candidates and if you have ever googled a local candidate I doubt you’ll find much in the way of substantive political discussion.  So there is a very serious opportunity for bloggers to voice their opinions and make a case for candidates online.  Plus, I’ve found that many candidates and political figures in the local are very accommodating to bloggers, which means there is a lot of excellent content for writing.

So last March I revisited the idea, but was still concerned about two things; size of audience and time needed to promote.  Anyone with a site knows that promoting is very difficult when you first start up.  That’s why I decided to try a more community friendly style of approach.  I wanted to get as many excellent Upstate bloggers involved as possible so as to spread out the number of races that could be covered saving time and increasing potential readership.  Since those of us who currently contribute to the Upstate Political Report have established a following on our main sites, we can post on both so that promoting the site isn’t as difficult. 

It is my hope that the site can be sort of a one stop shop for anyone who wants the scope on the local races.  I also hope that other bloggers, readers, and maybe even candidates will become interested in posting the material.  I’m certain that there will be many opportunities as the months unfold. 

2. What has been your best experience blogging so far?

In general, I love how blogging gives any Joe Shmoe a large microphone, so long as you are good at it, you will do well.  I love connecting with people with an angle they haven’t thought of or have but love the way I’ve written about it. 

So far my best experience has been in working with Left Coast Rebel on breaking news on the Coffee Party.  Due to our coverage in March, Left Coast Rebel had been linked by Instapundit, Gateway Pundit, Aces of Spades HQ, Legal Insurrection, American Thinker (I also published there), Free Republic and Riehl World View.  It was a lot of fun.  I felt like we were old-fashioned reporters breaking the truth and everyone was starving for it.  We even managed to become a Wikipedia reference.
                           
3. Has President Obama been better/worse than you expected?

Far worse.  I was only remotely active in educating myself on the 2008 race.  McCain certainly didn’t spark any sort of enthusiasm to seriously follow the election.  I didn’t know what to expect of Obama.  Despite his obviously radical political world view, there just wasn’t enough to know how he’d govern.  I also bought into the David Brooks hope that despite his views, he’d be about doing what’s popular in the polls.  He’d take us left, but not as far left as he’s tried to drag it.  I expected to see government sponsored stem cell research, but bank, GM/Chrystler, and health care takeovers?

The stimulus bill was proposed and I got predictably upset at the irresponsibility of it all and by the GM takeover I was livid.

4. Do you believe that the GOP will take the NYS Senate this year?

Yeah, I think it’s near certain.  Democrat leadership has only been fighting the state government reforms that all New Yorkers know and want to have happen.  There will be a huge Republican turnout this cycle and I don’t see how the Dems will be able to overcome it when there are numerous Republican leaning districts.

5. Do you see a Republican candidate winning either Senate race or the Governor's mansion?

Senate, yes; Governor, no.  All I have to say with the Governor race is Rick Lazio, need I say more.  Thanks to the nomination of Lazio and the political steam roller that is Cuomo, I’d say they have it all locked up, which means there is no real reason for downstate voters to bother showing up to the elections in November.  Especially not to support a NYC outsider like Gillibrand.  The polls will say Gillibrand has it locked up, but I predict a close race in the actual turnout.

6. How could readers send tips to the Upstate Political Report?



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Toomey Leads Sestak by Seven

 Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster out there, has released a new poll which places Republican Pat Toomey a full seven points ahead of Congressman Joe Sestak for the Pennsylvania Senate race. Not only are the results outside of the margin of error, it also pushes Toomey near 50%, an excellent sign in a good Republican year.

This also hurts Sestak at a vulnerable time. First, his surge from beating Arlen Specter in the Democratic Primary is fading. Secondly, the talk of the potential job offer from the Obama Administration may be damaging his credibility. While the offer should not necessarily hurt Sestak himself, voter's don't like to hear a candidate's name and "bribery" or "felony" in the same sentence.

Results:
Toomey: 45%
Sestak: 38%
Undecided/other: 17%.

12% are undecided while 5% choose another candidate. If these numbers are accurate, Sestak has to win all 12% to get to 50%-- a hard propostition without a game changer. I expect to see some attack ads come September/October.

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Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Awesome Les Phillips for Congress Commercial



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Saturday, May 29, 2010

Reid Beating Angle, Losing to Lowden

I wrote about this last week. If the Republican Party in Nevada nominates Sharron Angle for Senate, Harry Reid will have another term. Angle simply divides too many voters and hands too big of an advantage to the incumbent. According to a Las Vegas Review Journal poll, Sue Lowden is strong-- Angle is not.

Lowden (R): 42%
Reid (D): 39%

Reid (D): 42%
Angle (R): 39%

And the primary votes are also telling:

Lowden: 30%
Angle: 29%
Tarkanian: 23%

Lowden and Tarkanian are both mainstream, viable candidates. Angle, on the other hand, is too libertarian and out there to not only win the election, but to effectively serve the people of Nevada. I know that people want outsiders right now-- but to the GOP primary voters, don't choose someone outside of reality.

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Friday, May 28, 2010

Say Hello to Obama's Primary Challenge

 President Obama will be challenged in the 2012 primaries. You can count on it. His hands-off approach to leadership has been a near-disaster for the Democratic Party, which took almost ten years to regain its 'credibility' and take back the White House and Congress. Now it appears that the President is rightfully being hammered over his lack of response to the Gulf oil spill. But there's more. From terror, to the economy, to even health care, the left is angry at him for being unable to provide real leadership. His approval is likely going to slide into the low-to-mid forties, and unless he gets a plan together, he's not going to get it higher.

Which sets the stage for Hillary Clinton.

There's a rumor out there that she wants to leave her current position as Secretary of State. During her tenure she has traveled around the world with a high (and relatively uncritical) profile. She has not had to cast any controversial votes in the Senate and is able to show herself as above the fray of the chaotic Obama Administration.

She's probably waiting for a trigger of some sort. Probably she's hoping for a GOP landslide in November. A GOP comeback, coupled with Obama's ratings below forty percent, is likely to allow her to jump into the race in January 2011.

She likely has some pretty potent talking points lined up:

1. I Told You He Was Inexperienced: This will be the big one. From the oil spill to terror to the economy to the health care plan, she's going to harp on the fact that since Senator Obama barely knew what he was doing in Congress, he wasn't able to bring any discernable skill to the White House.

2. I've Got Foreign Policy Credibility: Might sound crazy, but compared to President Obama, she has it in spades. Her campaign commercials can show her with all sorts of foreign leaders signing important treaties.

3. He's Clueless on Terrorism: In the Times Square and Christmas Day plots, the Administration's response was lackluster. Whether it be the terrorist resurgence in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, or Afghanistan, Hillary will be able to portray herself as a hawk. In addition, Obama's shameful lack of action towards Iran will be seen as his downfall, especially if they get the bomb anytime soon.

4. I Will Fix the Economy: This is likely the number two message. It will be in almost everything she says. Her husband (rightfully or not) earned high marks for handling the economy. With unemployment near 10% and the debt out of control, she can argue that no matter what she does, she could do a better job.

Remember, Hillary did not dismantle her 2008 campaign. She simply 'suspended' her campaign. Parts are still active and with a two-month incubation period, could get back off the ground. Prepare to see a major battle next year-- with Hillary coming out on top.

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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Burns Up in November Poll

Republican Tim Burns, who almost beat former John Murtha staffer Mark Critz for the PA-12 Congressional seat, is coming back strong. Burns suffered due to the Democratic Senate primary taking place on the same day, hurting him in the district where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. Despite that, Burns only lost by eight in a district where Murtha won handily in 2008.

New polling by PPP has Burns actually in the lead against Critz for the November contest:

Burns: 48%
Critz: 47%

I think that Burns might be able to pick Critz off on this one.


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Halter Ahead in Runoff

 Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter has jumped to a three point lead over incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln in a poll conducted by Reasearch 2000 (but set up by the Daily Kos). Kos polls tend to be a bit off and give misleading questions, but the results here may be accurate due to the fact that it's a poll of Democratic primary voters.

According to the poll, the most leftist Halter beats the centrist for the nomination:

Halter: 47%
Lincoln: 44%

The poll also says that Halter would lose by less to Republican nominee John Boozman. I tend to think that indies will run away from Halter once they hear what he has to say.

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