Five special congressional elections were held last year: From California's 10th district to Illinois' 5th district to New York's 23rd district. All five of the special elections were won by Democrats, but Republicans had a higher "return voting" percentage, which could indicate a few close special elections within the next few weeks.
California's 10th congressional district
2008 - Democrat candidate: 192,226. Republican candidate: 91,877.
2009 - Democrat candidate: 72,817. Republican candidate: 59,017.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 37.9%. Republican line: 62.2%.
Illinois' 5th congressional district
2008 - Democrat candidate: 170,728. Republican candidate: 50,881.
2009 - Democrat candidate: 30,561. Republican candidate: 10,622.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 17.9%. Republican line: 20.9%.
New York's 20th congressional district
2008 - Democrat candidate: 177,677. Republican candidate: 109,644.
2009 - Democrat candidate: 80,833. Republican candidate: 80,107.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 45.5%. Republican line: 73%.
New York's 23rd congressional district
2008 - Republican candidate: 129,991. Democrat candidate: 69,112.
2009 - Republican candidates: 78,135. Democrat candidate: 73,137.
Return Vote - Republican lines: 78%. Democrat line: 106%.
Total United States Average (based on districts mentioned)
2008 - Democrat candidates: 609,753. Republican candidates: 382,323.
2009 - Democrat candidates: 257,348. Republican candidates: 227,881.
Return Vote - Democrat line: 42%. Republican line: 59%.
59% of Republican voters (assuming all voters voted the same) returned during the 2009 special elections in California, Illinois, and New York, but only 42% of Democratic voters returned in 2010, even in steadfast Democratic districts; our Republican candidates increased their margins.
If the national "Return Vote" average remains the same in Hawaii and Pennsylvania this month, or the "Return Vote" margin remains the same, we could be looking at a Congressman Djou from Hawaii and a Congressman Burns from Pennsylvania. Turnout and politics could play a factor and my statistics are far from Biblical acceptance, but they prove one thing: Republicans are looking at a good year.
Our candidates are pumped. Our voters are out there. Our onceheld districts, could be ours once again.
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