Blunt Pulls Ahead in MO Senate Race

Republican Roy Blunt, currently a member of the House, has been ahead of his Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan for a while now. However, his lead appears to be widening and her public support flagging.


Blunt (R): 50%
Carnahan: 43%
Other/und: 7%

A couple of things to notice here. First, Blunt is at the important 50% threshold, which should translate into more solid turnout on election day. Second, the number of undecided voters is surprisingly low, which means that a vast majority of those polled have already made up their minds. Even if almost all of the undecideds go to the Democrat, Blunt still wins.

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Who will Indiana vote for in 2012? Not Obama.

President Barack Obama won Indiana by a whopping 28,391 votes in 2008, along with their crucial 11 electoral votes. And he accomplished all of that without winning more than 20% of the counties within the state, and while Governor Mitch Daniels (R) won reelection with over 57% of the vote.

Was Indiana apart of a dramatic political realignment?

Absolutely not.

Indiana might have fallen for Obama's message of "Hope and Change" in 2008, but the Hoosiers are now singing a new tune in 2010: "Coats for Senate". According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll on Indiana's Senate race, Mr.Coats is leading his Democratic opponent by 21%, while Mitch Daniels is enjoying a 65% approval rating.

However, that's not the biggest story out of Indiana. According to that same Rasmussen Reports poll, which documents a Dan Coats' lead and a popular Daniels' in Indiana, President Obama has huge problems with the Hoosier electorate, especially on a personal level - his approval rating is 39%, and his disapproval rating is 60%.

I'm flashing back to the 2004 Presidential Election. You know, when then President George W. Bush won Indiana with 60% of the vote, and Senator John Kerry could only muster a measly 39% of the vote. Those were the days, and it appears our political landscape could once again recapture the magic of Bush Mania.

Indiana (1.04%), North Carolina (0.32%) and Missouri (0.14%) were the three closest states during the last Presidential election. However, after 19 months of President Barack Obama in charge, all three of those states are looking forward to a Republican sweep in 2012.

Thoughts?

Rasmussen Reports - Indiana poll results.

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Should Ike Skelton be Worried?

Ike Skelton has represented Missouri's 4th congressional district for over 3 decades, and most of his reelection campaigns have been without serious opposition, even though his district is almost as Conservative as Oklahoma is, due inpart to his own Conservative values on social and national defense related issues.

Oh, he's also a Democrat, and Chairman of the House Committee on Armed Services.

So why exactly should Ike Skelton be Worried?

Well, as I'm sure most of you have heard about: Missouri overwhelmingly supported an anti-ObamaCare proposition during Tuesday's vote, which drove Republicans to the ballot box in droves, and their largest turnout in the entire state was in Ike Skelton's deep, deep, deep red district.

Missouri's 4th district Primary Results:

Republican Votes - 88,614.

Democratic Votes - 32,178.

It's true that Republican voters were motivated and that Ike Skelton faced a weak challenger in his Primary, but we cannot see the forest if we're staring at the tree's ahead of us. Ike Skelton is in huge trouble when we compare the Republican Primary results of Tuesday to the past two Congressional races.

Missouri's 4th district - 2008 election:

Ike Skelton (D) - 199,940 votes.

Jeff Parnell (R) - 103,421 votes.

Missouri's 4th district - 2006 election:

Ike Skelton (D) - 159,303 votes.

James Noland (R) - 69,254 votes.

Now do you get it? Close to 90% of all Republican voter's in 2008 returned to the polls two days ago to vote in the Primary election, while close to 30% more Republican vote's were cast in the 2010 Primary than in the 2006 general election. Our base is energized, and already surpassing mid-term low-levels of support that we witnessed just 4 years ago.

Ike Skelton better be afraid, very afraid.





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Is Obama screwed for 2012?

The 2008 United States Presidential Election went like this:

Florida

Obama - 4,282,074 - 50.92% - 27 Electoral Votes.
McCain - 4,045,624 - 48.10% - 0 Electoral Votes.

A recent June 2010 Quinnipiac Poll sampling of 1,133 Floridians:

Obama Job Performance

Disapprove - 54% - 91% of GOP, 50% of Ind, and 14% of Dem.
Approve - 40% - 81% of Dem, 43% of Ind, and 6% of GOP.

President Barack Obama won Florida with a cushion of just 236,000 votes, or by a margin of 1.8 percentage points. And now a recent poll from a respectable polling firm has his numbers in one of the most important states at 40%. For someone who faces the voters again in 29 months; a 40% approval rating is a bad sign of worse things to come.

Imagine if these polling numbers reflect voters from across the Nation? Obama won the state of North Carolina by 14,000 votes; the state of Indiana by 29,000 votes; the state of Nevada by 120,000 votes; the state of Iowa by 140,000 voters; the state of Virginia by 230,00 votes; the state of Ohio by 260,000 votes; and he lost in Missouri by only 4,000 votes.

Losing 10% support in all of the above mentioned states would cause such a overturn of voters that it might not matter who Republicans select to be their Presidential nominee; just as long as a Republican is on the ballot. Period.

Memo to all perspective candidates for the Republican Nomination: All you need to do to win the 2012 Presidential Election is to flip about 1,056,000 votes in the seven above mentioned states, which in turn will result in 98 Electoral Votes going into our column, leaving us the victors in 2012.

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