Is Obama screwed for 2012?

The 2008 United States Presidential Election went like this:

Florida

Obama - 4,282,074 - 50.92% - 27 Electoral Votes.
McCain - 4,045,624 - 48.10% - 0 Electoral Votes.

A recent June 2010 Quinnipiac Poll sampling of 1,133 Floridians:

Obama Job Performance

Disapprove - 54% - 91% of GOP, 50% of Ind, and 14% of Dem.
Approve - 40% - 81% of Dem, 43% of Ind, and 6% of GOP.

President Barack Obama won Florida with a cushion of just 236,000 votes, or by a margin of 1.8 percentage points. And now a recent poll from a respectable polling firm has his numbers in one of the most important states at 40%. For someone who faces the voters again in 29 months; a 40% approval rating is a bad sign of worse things to come.

Imagine if these polling numbers reflect voters from across the Nation? Obama won the state of North Carolina by 14,000 votes; the state of Indiana by 29,000 votes; the state of Nevada by 120,000 votes; the state of Iowa by 140,000 voters; the state of Virginia by 230,00 votes; the state of Ohio by 260,000 votes; and he lost in Missouri by only 4,000 votes.

Losing 10% support in all of the above mentioned states would cause such a overturn of voters that it might not matter who Republicans select to be their Presidential nominee; just as long as a Republican is on the ballot. Period.

Memo to all perspective candidates for the Republican Nomination: All you need to do to win the 2012 Presidential Election is to flip about 1,056,000 votes in the seven above mentioned states, which in turn will result in 98 Electoral Votes going into our column, leaving us the victors in 2012.

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Primary Preview - June 8, 2010.

Millions of Republican voters will be selecting their candidates of choice this morning, afternoon and evening across the entire Nation. Close to a dozen states will be holding primaries today, but all political eyes will be on Arkansas, California, and Nevada; as interesting Senatorial races on both sides of the aisle will be resolved by midnight tonight.

Arkansas

Arkansas Democrats will have to choose between Senator Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Governor Bill Halter today; possibly redefining Arkansas politics. While Lt. Governor Halter is a dedicated Left-Of-Center-MoveOn.Org-fellow, Senator Lincoln is within the Arkansas Conservative Democrat mainstream.

But it really doesn't matter who Arkansas Democrats select this evening, because the Republican nominee; Congressman Boozman, leads both Halter and Lincoln by double digits in the polls. Plus Arkansas is thirsting Conservatism, and two Democratic hacks competing to be down-the-line liberals doesn't appeal to that thirst.

California

As I wrote yesterday morning: Republicans in California have to choose between electability or viability, and political purity. Do we want to win in November, or do we want to select the most Right-Of-Center nominee for November? In California you cannot have both; which is the reason why I support Whitman and Fiorina.

Democrats will also be choosing their candidate for United States Senate this afternoon; either Senator Boxer, or Mickey Kaus (blogger). This isn't actually a Liberal v. Conservative Democrat contest like it is in Arkansas or like it was in West Virginia, but the race does ask this of Left-Of-Center voters: Will they support a candidate who opposes the unions and illegal immigration in California?

Nevada

Senator Reid is on Republican and Tea Party political hit-lists, but Republicans support their former statewide Chairman; Sue Lowden, and Tea Partiers support a current Nevada state representative; Sharron Angle for the Nomination to face off against Reid. Causing problems through out the political foundations of the state.

While Ms.Lowden is almost guaranteed to defeat Senator Reid in November; the same cannot be said about Ms.Angle, who doesn't have a wink of statewide political experience, and who will be portrayed as a Libertarian nutjob too extreme for Nevada voters. With the facts and Ried's possible political ploys in mind, and with a thoughtful consideration of Ms.Lowden's Conservatism; only one candidate is worthy, and that's Sue Lowden. Period.

Other Races

Besides for the big three races tonight; political wizkids should keep an eye on the South Carolina Republican Primary, on whom North Dakota Republicans select to face off against Congressman Pomeroy, and on whether or not Republicans in Virginia's 8th district select Matthew Berry to be their nominee against Congressman Moran in November.

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The Obama Effect: The Results from His Stumps in Virginia and NJ and What it Means in Massachusetts

Something I've found interesting over the last few weeks is speculation about how President Obama will effect the race in Massachusetts. But why deal with guesses when we can learn from history? I took the raw polling data from the New Jersey and Virginia elections, both of which Obama campaigned in, and analyzed it. From it, one can safely guess what Obama's stumping will do for Coakley.

On October 27th, President Obama campaigned for R. Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate for governor. On November 3rd, Deeds was handily beaten by Robert McDonnell (R). But what does that mean? Well, one look at this graph and the Obama Effect can easily be seen:
Click for much better quality.

As the graph shows, before the President campaigned for Deeds, polls showed McDonnell leading 54.6-40.6, or by 14%. When the election finally came, McDonnell won 58.7-41.2, or by 17.5%, three and a half points more than before Obama stumped for Deeds. In other words, the President did not have any effect on the election, and could possibly have pushed voters towards McDonnell.

But this is in Virginia, some might say. The election could have been a done deal, and thus could have negatively hurt turnout for Deeds. However, when compared to polling data from New Jersey, the Obama Effect can be more accurately quantified.

The race between incumbent Gov. Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R) in New Jersey was much closer than the election of Virginia. On November 1, President Obama stumped for Corzine, hoping to push him above his Republican challenger. Much to the President's and Corzine's chagrin, Christie defeated Corzine by more than four percent. but what does this have to do with the Obama Effect? Well, take a look:Click for better quality

The trend from the graph is clear. The week before the election, before Obama campaigned for Corzine, Christie was in the lead 41.9-41.1, less than a single percentage point. Yet, on election day, Christie won 48.8-44.5, more than 4%.

So what does this all mean? I believe the data can speak for itself. In both elections, after Obama stumped for his candidate, their opponent increased in relative support by 3.5%. That is the Obama Effect. He does not help the people he campaigns for; it is very possible that these votes mark a repudiation of him.

Now we look at the Special Election in Massachusetts, in which Obama is stumping for Martha Coakley:
Click for better quality

So the day that Obama campaigns for Coakley, polls show her behind 51-46 to Scott Brown, a five point difference between the two. Now, factoring in the Obama Effect, I make a bold prediction: that advantage of five will raise to over eight percent when the election is actually held.

And what's more, it is not a wild guess. This is based off of solid polling data. Thanks to RealClearPolitics for the NJ, Virginia, and Massachusetts data.

UPDATE:

Scott Brown has beaten Martha Coakley handily in the Massachusetts special election. Mr. Brown won the victory by approximately five percent, once again showing that his stumps for candidates do not work. The Obama Effect has struck.

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McDonnell Wins in VA

BREAKING NEWS:

Republican candidate for governor of Virginia Bob McDonnell has won the race there, according to electoral projections. Polls had McDonnell ahead of competitor Creigh Deeds by over 10 points and now it's official.

It also should be noted that the GOP is likely to sweep other major state offices, such as Lt. Governor and Attorney General. This is a blow to President Obama, who came personally to Virginia to support Deeds in his failed bid for the governor's mansion.

We have yet to hear from the races in New York, New Jersey, and California. Feel free to comment on our special Election Day Open Thread.

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Midnight FAIL

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Obama Discusses Americans' Responsibility: Follow the Government, Pay Taxes, and Love Liberty

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Fort Belvoir, Virginia- In a press conference after his annual golf game on Memorial Day, President Barack Obama took a minute to reflect on the significance of the United States.

"I stand here before you, a young President in an age of violence, turmoil, and recession. What the next year holds, I cannot say. What tomorrow will bring, I cannot know. But I know this: every American has a responsibility to help his fellow man.

"When you look around, we see people without healthcare, families without food, men and women without jobs. Now, I ask you this: what is our responsibility to these people, the less fortunate who live in our country? The answer is not clear, but the feelings are.

"Our commitment is to help those in need. We must take this obligation not with pain or malice, but with zeal. We must restructure healthcare and make it available to all. And we must pay our taxes so that those without jobs can receive the money they need. We must love one another like we love our family, and we must allow the government to have the power to help those in need.

"In our country, the government is the only structure that can rebuild our economy and help the needy. What other organization can earn public trust, use money to its fullest extent, and give people jobs? But the most important point of the government is trust. We all must trust the government to do the right thing, and most importantly, you all must trust me. I can help everyone; all I need is your trust, loyalty, and taxes. That's all I ask.

"But importantly in this time of upheaval, I ask that you put your trust in the government and what it can do. Let the government rebuild the country, let us help each other, and let us lower crime. Yet remember, regardless of what the government does, we will always protect your liberty. That is what the government is here to do; protect freedom.

"The Obama Administration will always be here to protect your freedom, you have my promise," President Obama concluded.

The President then declined to take questions, and left to loud applause from the Press.



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