Did Gillibrand Commit Career Suicide?

Yesterday we got the triumphant news that the United States Senate had decided to cut off funds to the "community activist" group ACORN. ACORN, of course is known primarily for organizing voter fraud and assisting in prostitution. It must also be noted that the group played a role in the banking collapse, forcing banks to loan millions in subprime mortgages in order to avoid being called 'racist.'

By an overwhelming, bipartisan vote of 83-7, the Senate barred funding for the group, which has received millions in federal and state funding. Among the yes votes are many prominent liberal Democrats, who may have supported ACORN in the past. Even President Obama once worked for an affiliate of the organization.

Which brings us to Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed Senator this year after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton resigned her Senate seat. Appointed by an unpopular governor, she ruffled the feathers of left and right. Left for formerly supporting gun rights and other "right wing" causes and by the Right for abandoning her "core beliefs" once she wanted the Senate seat.

So she comes in with a low approval and now votes in favor of stuffing ACORN with more money. After they committed voter fraud and after these videos have been released.

And now there's word that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani may run against Gillibrand for her Senate seat. If that's the case, she better start making better decisions than giving money to these crooks.

Kirsten Gillibrand: FAIL.

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Senator Giuliani?

Author's note : This is in response to Matthew Avitabile's blogpost last night, which examined the possibility of Rudy Giuliani for Senator, instead of Governor.

Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, is like a kid in a candy shop. As he has the opportunity to run for several different elections, and win in several different elections as well. Perhaps the last Republican for a long time to come, to even claim that.

Giuliani has been touted as the highest ranking Republican who can run for Governor & win in 2010, as Giuliani has an excellent track record as Mayor of New York City, as he turned the City around, using Conservative principles such as being tough on crime, believing in Fiscal Conservatism, and his brilliant response to the 9/11 attacks will forever seal his legacy.

On the other hand, we have Governor David Paterson, a corrupt former state Senator from down state, who was pushed into office when the disgraceful Elliot Spitzer resigned over a year ago. Paterson has pushed through a horrible budget with increased taxation on all New Yorkers, a fiasco which was the United States Senate appointment, and he illegally appointed a Lt. Governor (thank goodness, the NY Supreme Court ruled it against the Constitution). All of the above reasons, is why Paterson is trailing Giuliani by an average of 20 points per poll. And why, a majority of New Yorker's now favor a Constitutional Convention within the state.

Giuliani has the chance to be elected as Governor, however, will he take a risk? That risk is the possibility of facing Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, when at first the polls showed Cuomo with a good size lead over Giuliani, however his lead has shrunk to just 5 percentage points, according to a Seina poll released in late July.

Now as for Giuliani running against Gillibrand in the New York United States Senate election net year, we really have no polling data as to how Giuliani could fare against Gillibrand, however former Governor Pataki has a good shot at defeating Gillibrand himself. So that leaves open that possibility of Giuliani giving that election some consideration as well, because Gillibrand has pissed off both the liberal elites in New York City, and Conservative folks in Upstate New York.

However, I see the best choice as Giuliani running for Governor of New York state, as this state is in desperate need of reform, fiscal Conservatism, and someone who will put his foot down. So, as for me, give me Governor Giuliani, or give the Republicans defeat in 2010 (Note - whomever the Republican is, I will be campaigning very hard for their victory, we need conservatism in this state again). I select Giuliani as Governor, however will he run for Governor or Senator?

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Would Giuliani Be Better Suited for the Senate?

Word is leaking out that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is considering a run for the New York State's governorship. If he does, he can expect my full support. However, he may be making the wrong move politically.

Consider the next race coming up next year in New York. Current junior Senator Kirsten Gillebrand may face a stiff challenge from fellow Democrats for the nomination. She is seen as too conservative for many of the New York City elite... and worse for them, she's from Upstate.

Giuliani would likely face off against Andrew Cuomo if he ran for Governor. Cuomo, the son of former Governor Mario Cuomo is the current Attorney General. Cuomo's approval rating stands above 60% recently and made headlines by pushing for an investigation of disgraced former Governor Eliot Spitzer.

Polls place Cuomo ahead of the former Mayor. However, Giuliani may be better able to use his political capital challenging Gillebrand. Assuming she survives the primaries, Giuliani can use his former position for pull with the New York City voters. He can say that he knows what it's like to run a major city and can state that his views on issues like gay marriage are authentic, unlike Gillebrand's perceived waffling.

Gillebrand is also a lightweight as far as a resume is concerned. Just elected to the House in 2006 and appointed to the Senate this year, Giuliani can argue that his long record as Mayor and prosecutor shows that he is up for the job.

Giuliani has a major shot of winning the Senate seat next year. Unless Cuomo gets involved in a scandal or loses in the primaries, Giuliani might lose by fifteen percent.

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Why Obama Will Win in 2012, Part One

Predictions and fortune-telling are among the least reliable forms of information known to man. However trends often cross over years and can signal whether or not big changes are going to occur. My predictions are not usually accurate, but I am beginning to see a series of events which will likely lead to the re-election of President Obama.

I'm starting a series which will hopefully go to show that while things aren't hopeless for the Republican Party, the warning bells should be sounded.

1. Lack of a Republican 'incumbent.'

This doesn't simply mean that there's not a Republican President or Vice President in office today, but that there is no one waiting in the wings to take the Republican mantle. I know what many may think: that Sarah Palin, as VP candidate in 2008, is ready to take over the fight. However, as 2008 showed, many in the party were willing to support a moderate candidate (McCain and Giuliani). Palin's conservatism may not be a liability with the base, but may lead many to believe that she is unwinnable in a general election.

And this goes beyond Palin. In 2008, McCain was an early favorite because he had come in a strong second in the last Republican primary. In 1976, Ronald Reagan had almost won the primaries away from sitting President Gerald Ford. When the Republicans did not have a sitting legacy, they were destroyed. Take 1996, when Robert Dole was blown out, barely gathering 40% of the national vote. Yes, he was a contender in the 1988 Republican primaries, but not near the amount of legacy of Reagan and McCain.

In addition, many of the Republican candidates are already known to run poor campaigns. Much enthusiasm was generated by former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson. According to some, the actor would grant the field the conservatism and gravitas to carry the primaries. Instead, he flopped.

Mitt Romney flipped on nearly every important issue regarding his reign as Governor of Massachusetts. On gay marriage, taxes, and abortion, he made swift turns which seemed (at least to me and much of the Republican electorate) as phony stancing attempting to please the Republican base. Instead, his mediocre record as Governor helped doomed his candidacy to a much more moderate character, McCain.

Mike Huckabee is a jovial, likable former Governor of Arkansas. His record as Governor was excellent and has a speaking ability that may top the Republican field. However, his religious views and ties with the church, being a former pastor, may hurt his chances in any Fall 2012 matchup. Huckabee is also seen as unrefined by many in his own party, lacking the business "finesse" of Romney (not that he has much anyway) or military experience of McCain.

Rudy Giuliani was one of the best mayors of New York City. He reduced taxes, unemployment, and crime. He cleaned up NYC's mess after Dinkins and helped propel a 1990s boom. His moderate views, particularly on abortion and gay marriage, alienated many in the Conservative base, but still was considered an early favorite. Giuliani may stand a shot against Obama in 2012 if the focus is on national security. However, pop culture and a short attention span seems to downplay his heroic leadership on and after the September 11th, 2001 massacres. Joe Biden's joke about Giuliani's sentence-making is similar to saying that Churchill's sentences were a "noun, a verb, and the Battle of Britain."

Bobby Jindal is a reformist from Louisiana. He may become President one day, but he is far too smart to challenge Obama if he is still popular. By 2012, Jindal may not have a strong record to stand on (although 2008 proved that you do not need one to win) and his conservative views will be mercilessly attacked during any general election campaign. My guess is he won't run until 2016 at the earliest.

There are many others who may vie for the Republican nomination in three years. Among the names are Eric Cantor, George Pataki, and John Huntsman. However, the fact that many are virtual unknowns will probably not help to unseat a current President.

Tune in for part two.

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The Next NY Senator Should Be...

With all of the speculation of Hillary going to the State Department, the question of who would replace her has become a hot topic. I don't think she's going (despite all the buzz), but if she does, I want to lay down who should be the next Senator.

Now, I'm inclined for our Governor, David Paterson, to choose a Republican (Giuliani or Pete Lopez), but it seems unlikely. So, since the Senator will be a Democrat, I hope Paterson chooses himself. Paterson was originally named to be Lieutenant Governor so he could be named to the Senate when Hillary became President.

So Paterson could become New York's next Senator. He can choose any non-felon resident of the state that is over 30. Paterson is popular in New York and would easily be reelected in 2012. He is smart, determined, and has shown strength as a fiscal conservative. He is likable and has acted in a bipartisan manner, despite NY's natural inclinations to the Left.

Paterson would do well as a Senator and this would leave the Governor's mansion up to Giuliani to run for the next go-around.

Jindal in 2012

Well, I know that it's a bit far away, but I wanted to write a few preliminary thoughts on this idea. My first inclination for the nomination would be Giuliani, but I think that the base is not going to seriously consider another moderate.

So we look at Bobby Jindal. Why would his candidacy help the Republican Party?
Well,

*He has campaigned and governed on reducing corruption in perhaps the most corrupt state in the Union
*He is an Indian-American, showing that the Republicans are willing to support minority candidates.
*He is the son of immigrants, showing that the American Dream is alive and well.
*He is young, which can play against Obama's youth.
*He is a governor, showing executive experience.
*He is well experienced and has shown incredible tenacity.
*He is untainted from the 2008 election.

So Bobby Jindal may get my support in a couple of years.