Primary Mania Open Thread.

11:40 PM - (JIP) A few more statistics to end the long night:

I blogged tonight's Primaries for 3 hours and 40 minutes.

I Updated this article on 34 occasions this evening.

Good night everyone!

11:35 PM - (Alaska) And here's the link to Alaska's results....

....for whenever it reaches 8:00 PM there.

11:31 PM - (Arizona) Sen. McCain wins GOP Nomination:

Senator John McCain - 198,631 - 58.95%.
Congressman Hayworth - 99,067 - 29.40%.
Businessman Jim Deakin - 38,464 - 11.42%.

(JIP) I'm done for the night. Check here for Arizona results.

11:23 PM - (Arizona) Deadheat to replace Rep. Shedegg:

Arizona's 3rd congressional district.
Ben Quayle - 9,171 - 22.20%.
Jim Waring - 7,949 - 19.24%.
Steve Moak - 7,510 - 18.18%.
Vernon Parker - 6,488 - 15.70%.

11:18 PM - (Arizona) McCain is kicking Hayworth's ass:

Senator John McCain - 161,637 - 58.91%.
Congressman Hayworth - 82,787 - 30.17%.
Businessman Jim Deakin - 29,313 - 10.68%.

11:12 PM - (Arizona!) Arizona's first results are coming in!

Senator John McCain - 137,802 - 59.29%.
Congressman Hayworth - 69,876 - 30.06%.
Businessman Jim Deakin - 24,72 - 10.40%.

Can we call it for McCain now?

11:00 PM - (JIP) I'll be shutting down for the night soon...

...I just hope Arizona releases their results before I do so.

(Florida) - Rick Scott is officially the declared winner. Wow.

10:53 PM - (Arizona) Where are you Arizona? We're waiting!

I have a feeling we'll see Alaska's results before Arizona's....

10:50 PM - (Florida) Allen West (R) to face Rep. Klein (D):

Florida's 22nd congressional district
Allen West - 23,039 - 76.00%.
David Brady - 7,275 - 24.00%.

10:44 PM - (Florida) It's over for Bill McCollum in Florida:

Rick Scott - 575,110 - 47%.
Bill McCollum - 533,479 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 126,255 - 10%.

10:37 PM - (Florida) 82% of Florida Precints are Reporting:

Rick Scott - 558,734 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 522,276 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 123,636 - 10%.

McCollum trails by 36,500 votes...

10:31 PM - (Arizona) - Arizona does not appreciate political junkies!

(Florida) - Over 1.2 million Florida Republicans voted today.....wow.

10:25 PM - (Florida) - 81% of Florida Precincts are Reporting:

Rick Scott - 551,770 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 514,583 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 122,109 - 10%.

McCollum trails by 37,000 votes....

10:21 PM - (Arizona) I feel like Karl Rove did in 2000.........

......I want those results, and I want them now! Goodness!!!!

10:13 PM - (Florida) 74% of Florida Precincts are Reporting:

Rick Scott - 543,201 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 504,704 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 120,664 - 10%.

10:06 PM - (Arizona) It's 8 PM in Arizona. Results, please?

(Florida) I wonder if McCollum can come back....any thoughts?

9:59 PM - (Florida) Scott is still ahead by 40,000 votes:

Rick Scott - 536,506 - 57%.
Bill McCollum - 496,777 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 119,627 - 10%.

9:51 PM - (Arizona) Waiting for Arizona's GOP Results........

.....I'm expecting a huge McCain victory, and a Quayle defeat.

9:49 PM - (Florida) Scott is ahead by about 40,000 votes:

Rick Scott - 524,914 - 47%.
Bill McCollum - 485,017 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 117,538 - 10%.

9:45 PM - (Florida) Still too close to call down in Florida:

Rick Scott - 515,871 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 478,672 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 115,398 - 10%.

9:34 PM - (Florida) With about 1.1 million votes counted:

Rick Scott - 499,078 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 463,835 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 111,607 - 10%.

Scott/McCollum is still too close to call.............

9:24 PM - (Florida) With 1,038,957 votes counted:

Rick Scott - 483,880 - 47%.
Bill McCollum - 446,704 - 43%.
Mike McAlister - 108,373 - 10%.

Scott is increasing his lead over Attorney General McCollum.

9:15 PM - The polls have closed in the State of Arizona:

Results to be published at 10 PM.

9:10 PM - (Florida) Scott leads with 1,000,000 votes counted:

Rick Scott - 469,627 - 47%.
Bill McCollum - 434,038 - 43%.
Mike McCalister - 104,897 - 10%.

9:05 PM - (Oklahoma) Thompson wins right to oppose Rep. Boren:

Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district
Charles Thompson - 1,805 - 65.16%.
Daniel Edmonds - 965 - 34.84%.

9:01 PM - 965,000 votes and counting:

Rick Scott - 448,231 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 416,763 - 43%.
Mike McCalister - 101,195 - 10%.

8:55 PM - 940,000 votes and counting:

Rick Scott - 435,732 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 409,342 - 43%.
Mike McCalister - 98,673 - 10%.

8:50 PM - Meek wins Democrat Senatorial Primary:

Kendrick Meek - 326,515 - 54%.
Jeff Greene - 199,992 - 33%.
Glenn Burkett - 43,845 - 7%.
Maurice Ferre - 31,941 - 5%.

8:45 PM - 900,000 votes and counting (via FoxNews.com):

Rick Scott - 423,127 - 46%.
Bill McCollum - 398,646 - 43%.
Mike McCalister - 95,779 - 10%.

8:35 PM - The numbers are slowly coming out of Florida tonight.

Arizona's results will be published on their website at 10:00 PM.

8:27 PM - Rubio wins GOP Senatorial Primary:

Marco Rubio - 664,158 - 84.38%.
William Kogut - 71,119 - 9.04%.
William Escoffery - 51,845 - 6.59%.

No wonder Crist left the GOP: Rubio = landslide.

8:10 PM - With about 800,000 votes counted:

Rick Scott - 368,881 - 46.12%.
Bill McCollum - 348,694 - 43.60%.
Mike McCalister - 82,194 - 10.28%.

8:05 PM - With about 750,000 votes counted:

Rick Scott - 345,249 - 46.12%.
Bill McCollum - 325,837 - 43.53%.
Mike McCalister - 77,453 - 10.35%.

8:00 PM - The polls have closed in the State of Florida.

I will be watching the election results all night long. Look for updates on Jumping in Pools starting at 8:00 PM, and ending at about 11:00 PM:

Polls close in Florida at 7:00 pm* (ET) and 7:00 pm* (CT).
Polls close in Arizona at 9:00 pm (ET) and 7:00 pm (MT).
Polls close in Alaska at 12:00 am (ET) and 8:00 pm (AT).

Hopefully the turnouts are strong, and those who deserve to be nominated are nominated this evening.

* - Polls close in most portions of Florida at 7:00 pm Eastern Time, while in some portions of the state polls close at 8:00 pm Eastern Time (North West Florida), and the State Board of Elections will begin releasing all results at 8:00 pm Eastern Time.





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Psychic Octopus Predicts German Win in World Cup

This isn't from the Podunk Times or some non-consequential paper, but it's from the BBC, the most respected media source in Britain. Of course they're on top of all of our psychic animal needs, just like our good friend Paul the Octopus:

When consulted, Paul the octopus chose a mussel from a jar with the German flag on it ahead of one in a similar jar bearing the cross of St George.

The two-year-old cephalopod has a record of predicting past German results in this manner, his owners say.
Paul has so far correctly predicted all of Germany's results in South Africa.

His keepers say he correctly predicted 80% of Germany's results during the 2008 European Championship.
...
The octopus, who was born in the UK and was moved to the German aquarium, has become a national celebrity after correctly predicting Germany would beat Australia in their opening match, then lose to Serbia, and then beat Ghana.

His latest prediction was flashed all over the German media.

Well, I might as well put down fifty beans on this one.



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Baseball Season Predictions

Spring is in the air and you know what that means…

It is when a young man’s fancy turns to baseball.

I know I haven't been writing much lately, but I'm doing more than that slacker Joe.

Some predictions for 2010:

NL East:

Phillies

Braves

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

NL Central:

Cardinals

Brewers

Cubs

Reds

Astros

Pirates

NL West:

Giants

Rockies

Dodgers

Diamondbacks

Padres

NL Wildcard: Braves

NL Champs: Phillies

AL East:

Yankees

Red Sox

Rays

Blue Jays

Orioles

AL Central:

Twins

White Sox

Tigers

Indians

Royals

AL West:

Angels

Mariners

Rangers

Oakland

AL wildcard: Red Sox

AL champs: Yankees

World Champions: Yankees

Lute Barnes

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2010 MLB Season predictions.

Major League Baseball will return next week, along with the associated 162 games-a-year for all 30 teams, and the World Famous - World Series. Well, being the sophisticated baseball fan that I happen to be, predictions are required, thus these are my predictions for the 2010 Major League Baseball season. Click for more on baseball odds.

National League Divisional winners:

NL East - Philadelphia Phillies.
NL Central - St. Louis Cardinals.
NL West - LA Dodgers.
NL Wildcard - Atlanta Braves.

American League Divisional winners:

AL East - New York Yankees.
AL Central - Chicago Whitesox.
AL West - LA Angels.
AL Wildcard - Seattle Mariners.

National League Divisional Series:

(1) Cardinals vs. (4) Braves - Braves win in 5.
(2) Phillies vs. (3) Dodgers - Dodgers win in 4.

American League Divisional Series:

(1) Yankees vs. (4) Mariners - Yankees win in 4.
(2) Whitesox vs. (3) Angels - Angels win in 5.

National League Championship Series:

(2) Dodgers vs. (4) Braves - Dodgers win in 5.

American League Championship Series:

(1) Yankees vs. (3) Angels - Yankees win in 6.

World Series:

(NL) Dodgers vs. (AL) Yankees - Dodgers in 7.

Also, I am predicting a National League victory in the All-Star game this July.

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Predictions for 2010

Last year, myself and Mr. K. made some predictions for the upcoming year 2009. We both got some right and some wrong. Mr. K. wrote about these predictions yesterday so I'll give you some new ones for 2010.

January 1, 2011

Price of gas-- $4.16
Oil/Barrel-- $151
Dow Industrials-- 12,271
Gold/oz.-- $1631
Silver/oz-- $22.10
Jumping in Pools daily readership average-- 2600
President Obama Approval-- 44%
Iran has bomb-- Yes
Israel strikes Iran-- Yes
Major Obama scandal-- Minor
OBL Dead/Captured-- Yes
Mets 2009 Record-- 74-88
World Series Champs-- New York Yankees
Super Bowl Champs-- Arizona Cardinals

Value of the Iraqi Dinar-- 1050/dollar
Dollar/Euro-- $2.10
Unemployment Rate-- 9.8%
Inflation Rate-- 3.3%

Some other predictions:

The Chevy Volt will be a moderate flop. One member of the Obama Cabinet will resign or be canned. One major Senator will be caught in a sex scandal. Rick Lazio loses to Andrew Cuomo in the NY Governor's Race 65%-34%. The US House will be 220-215 Democrats. The US Senate will be 57-43 Democrats/Caucus with Democrats. The Republicans will take back the NY State Senate. This blog will again be labeled 'dangerous.'

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Mr.K vs. Matthew Avitabile, battle of the predictions.

Last year, when Jumping in Pools had a readership of fifteen, Matthew Avitabile (the boss) and I (the rookie), made predictions regarding the future of the world. Well, lets take a look at the predictions, and who is smarter.

Gas - Matt predicted $3.09, I predicted $3.67, with gasoline prices under three dollars, Matthew was closer.

Oil - Matt predicted $91 dollars per barrel, I predicted $124 dollars per barrel, with Oil well below one hundred dollars, Matthew is again the closest.

JIP Readership - Matt predicted 120 readers to the blog, I predicted 234 readers to the blog (daily readers), with the website well above 234, I was off, but closer to realistic numbers.

Obama approval - Matt predicted 53% approval, I predicted 45% approval for Obama, Rasmussen has Obama in the forties, and Real Clear Politics has Obama at 49.8%, leaving me closer to Obama's approval, but Matt is within the margin...................however, I am closer.

Iran bomb - Matt, no....but close. Me, Yes... - Iran does not have a bomb, but they're close. Matt was correct.

Israeli attack on Iran - Matt, Yes. Me, No....but soon - Israel has not attacked Iran, leaving me the victor on this prediction.

Obama scandal - Matt, No. Me, Perhaps. I believe we were both wrong, as the Obama administration has had scandal after scandal, but neither of us called it.

Osama dead or captured - Matt, Yes. Me, No. The dickhead is still around, meaning I was right, sadly.

MLB standings - Matt predicted a Mets record of 84-78, I predicted a Braves record of 79-83. The Mets ended the season 70-92, the Braves ended the season 86-76, leaving me closer, but both of us wrong.

World Series Champs - Matt predicted the Yankees would win it all, I predicted the Redsox would win it all. Guess who was right, Matt.

Other predictions -

Matt, predicted the value of Gold over $1,000 dollars an ounce, he was correct.

Me, well I predicted that Republicans would win the Governorship in New Jersey, but not in Virginia, so I was right and wrong.

Matt vs. Mr.K results -

Matt was correct or close on four predictions, and I was correct or close on four predictions, and we were both wrong on two predictions.

Matt, I am on for round two!

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Election 2009 Predictions

These are my official predictions for tomorrow's elections. I'm not too good at this, but I want to send them your way:

NY-23

Hoffman (C)- 50%
Owens (D)- 45%
Scozzafava (R)- 5%

CA-10

Harmer (R)- 46%
Garamendi (D)- 54%

NJ Governor

Corzine (D)- 43%
Christie (R)- 46%
Daggett (I)- 11%

VA Governor

McDonnell (R)- 59%
Deeds (D)- 40%

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Prediction: Media Will Attempt to Use Ridge Claims to Get Heat Off of Obama

Former Pennsylvania Governor and Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge has raised eyebrows with accounts that appear to show that Bush Administration pressured him to raise the terror alert level in 2004 to aid the President's reelection campaign.

A couple problems here. I think that Ridge is being honest, but his book doesn't directly say that this happened to begin with. Secondly, he doesn't state that Bush or Cheney asked for this. Third, he was asked by Ashcroft and Rumsfeld, who were both informed about al Qaeda threats.

But what will come from this? This will be used as a distraction away from President Obama's dropping poll numbers and political agenda. This will be a way to reorient the debate from the health care issues to Bush.

Bush is a convenient bogeyman for those uninformed about politics. Many hope that it is still en vogue to call him a stupid dictator. Many on the left, especially MSNBC will hope to launch this smokescreen as a way of saying "See, Bush is finally gone. You don't want him to return do you? So be happy with Obama and shut your mouth."

They will try. One thing that will be interesting is if they succeed.

But until then I call firsties on this.

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Why Obama Will Win in 2012, Part Two

This is the second part of a series I'm writing about why, even at this early stage, it appears that President Obama will win re-election. Now, I know that it's 2009, but either what I'm going to write about needs to be changed, or President Obama will stay in the White House until 2017.

Part One: Lack of a Republican 'incumbent.'

2. Republicans Give a Reactionary Message

Republicans' poll ratings are at an all-time low. The Democrats have just won the Congress and the White House and Republicans are increasingly involved in sex scandals (gee, I could have predicted that.) Sounds horrible, but there is a distinct possibility of winning the White House in 2012.

However, in order to do that, you need a coherent, proactive message.

Instead, much of the argument made by Republican politicians and commenters is that "Obama is wrong" on just about everything. Supporting evidence is often hyped or typed in all caps. Many of these same Republicans and Conservatives railed against 'Bush Derangement Syndrome" and are now doing a similar thing. I know that ODS isn't as prevalent as BDS (not by a long shot), but there are still the crazies out there who are slinging all sorts of nasty towards the President. And most (if not all) of it is not justified.

Example: search "Obama birth certificate" into Google. You receive over 1.3 million hits. These fine, fine conspiracy hacks will give such iron-clad evidence as this and this. Not very convincing. Yes, there are pretty pictures and a lot of space for the imagination to run free, but it appears that the most important piece of evidence is missing: a foreign birth certificate.

The "birther" issue is a false one, and it will not gain as many votes as it will lose in 2012. Until someone comes up with a foreign birth certificate for the President, they should shut up and concentrate on actual reasons they disagree with him.

In addition, the Republican Party has not forged a unified message. In 2004, President Bush won due to his decision to talk mostly about foreign policy and keeping the United States safe. Instead, after President Obama's election, the message has been mixed. This reminds me of the Democrats' problem after 2001. Sound familiar? Just a few:

1. Bush was "selected" not elected/Obama was not born in America.
2. Bush is cutting taxes solely for the plutocrats./Obama is intentionally destroying the economy for a Marxist plan.

The problem here is that the President has put forth policies that many on the right may disagree with. But if we want to win, and if we want respect, we need to meet them one by one. When we figure what our best argument is, go with it constantly.

Moreover, we cannot simply state that Obama is "wrong", we must prove why we are right. If we can't do that, we won't win. In 2000 and 2004, the Democrats tried to base their campaigns on the "Bush is dumb" line. It worked for the under 30 crowd, but it appears to have flopped with just about everyone else who didn't already vote Democrat.

In place of simply opposing Obama's policies, the Republicans need to unveil their own competing versions independently. This would include proposals that may even overlap with the President's. For this year and next, the Republicans should make a solid plan regarding foreign energy, and show why their plan could reduce America's energy problems.

So what's my suggestion? Harp on foreign policy. It's Obama's weakest and the one that he will receive the least benefit-of-the-doubt on. Rather than simply stating, "He's made us more unsafe", go into individual policies that he's enacted in order to state this. Vice President Cheney was able to do this, and jumped his approval ratings almost to the stratospheric levels of 40%! We need someone knowledgeable on the subject, who has a blue-collar background to do this.

My prediction: we don't know that person right now, but they'll emerge in 2010 or 2011.

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Why Obama Will Win in 2012, Part One

Predictions and fortune-telling are among the least reliable forms of information known to man. However trends often cross over years and can signal whether or not big changes are going to occur. My predictions are not usually accurate, but I am beginning to see a series of events which will likely lead to the re-election of President Obama.

I'm starting a series which will hopefully go to show that while things aren't hopeless for the Republican Party, the warning bells should be sounded.

1. Lack of a Republican 'incumbent.'

This doesn't simply mean that there's not a Republican President or Vice President in office today, but that there is no one waiting in the wings to take the Republican mantle. I know what many may think: that Sarah Palin, as VP candidate in 2008, is ready to take over the fight. However, as 2008 showed, many in the party were willing to support a moderate candidate (McCain and Giuliani). Palin's conservatism may not be a liability with the base, but may lead many to believe that she is unwinnable in a general election.

And this goes beyond Palin. In 2008, McCain was an early favorite because he had come in a strong second in the last Republican primary. In 1976, Ronald Reagan had almost won the primaries away from sitting President Gerald Ford. When the Republicans did not have a sitting legacy, they were destroyed. Take 1996, when Robert Dole was blown out, barely gathering 40% of the national vote. Yes, he was a contender in the 1988 Republican primaries, but not near the amount of legacy of Reagan and McCain.

In addition, many of the Republican candidates are already known to run poor campaigns. Much enthusiasm was generated by former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson. According to some, the actor would grant the field the conservatism and gravitas to carry the primaries. Instead, he flopped.

Mitt Romney flipped on nearly every important issue regarding his reign as Governor of Massachusetts. On gay marriage, taxes, and abortion, he made swift turns which seemed (at least to me and much of the Republican electorate) as phony stancing attempting to please the Republican base. Instead, his mediocre record as Governor helped doomed his candidacy to a much more moderate character, McCain.

Mike Huckabee is a jovial, likable former Governor of Arkansas. His record as Governor was excellent and has a speaking ability that may top the Republican field. However, his religious views and ties with the church, being a former pastor, may hurt his chances in any Fall 2012 matchup. Huckabee is also seen as unrefined by many in his own party, lacking the business "finesse" of Romney (not that he has much anyway) or military experience of McCain.

Rudy Giuliani was one of the best mayors of New York City. He reduced taxes, unemployment, and crime. He cleaned up NYC's mess after Dinkins and helped propel a 1990s boom. His moderate views, particularly on abortion and gay marriage, alienated many in the Conservative base, but still was considered an early favorite. Giuliani may stand a shot against Obama in 2012 if the focus is on national security. However, pop culture and a short attention span seems to downplay his heroic leadership on and after the September 11th, 2001 massacres. Joe Biden's joke about Giuliani's sentence-making is similar to saying that Churchill's sentences were a "noun, a verb, and the Battle of Britain."

Bobby Jindal is a reformist from Louisiana. He may become President one day, but he is far too smart to challenge Obama if he is still popular. By 2012, Jindal may not have a strong record to stand on (although 2008 proved that you do not need one to win) and his conservative views will be mercilessly attacked during any general election campaign. My guess is he won't run until 2016 at the earliest.

There are many others who may vie for the Republican nomination in three years. Among the names are Eric Cantor, George Pataki, and John Huntsman. However, the fact that many are virtual unknowns will probably not help to unseat a current President.

Tune in for part two.

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Our Satire... Or Our Crystal Ball?

Over the last year, we've written a lot of articles tagged 'satire', stating that the intention of the article was a semi-humorous variation of the actual day's news events. However, in looking at the news lately, I have a bad feeling that some of the 'satire' that we've been bandying about is actually just a precursor to real events-- just a few months later.

Skeptical?

Take a look at this:

Our article, January 27, 2009:

Obama Press Corps to Open Own News Source

excerpt:

Starting by summer of 2009, the Obama Administration plans to open the "Executive Press Office." Working like the Associated Press, it would take together different journalists and would distribute independent articles and interviews. "This is really about the media in the twenty first century." an assistant to Gibbs told AFP. "With all of the distortions and mischaracterizations, the President cannot afford to be distracted while he is working on his agenda to help America."

And some news that has come out on May 20th:

Do You Want Your OTV?

Read the TV pool report: "Your Pool was not allowed to go over and shoot POTUS with the team shooting hoops. We protested loudly." Now we know why: Obama White House officials decided to do their own media report on the visit, complete with cuts, interviews, and chyrons identifying who's speaking. Also, just like a network, they have their own little logo! ... Is the goal to ultimately replace the pesky photographers who film what they want to and not what they're told to (not to mention the annoying reporters who ask uncomfortable questions about, say, detainee policy and bank bailouts)?
Weird, huh?

What about this? We wrote an article on January 26, 2009 about Obama forming a program called the "America Scouts" who would serve as a precursor to the military:

Obama to Launch "America Scouts"

"Patriot" scouts for those between 8-12 and "Constitution" scouts for those up to 18. It is yet unknown if these "Constitution Scouts" would then move up to President Obama's planned civilian reserve force.

And this news came out on May 13th:

Scouts Train to Fight Terrorists, and More

One participant, Felix Arce, 16, said he liked “the discipline of the program,” which was something he said his life was lacking. “I want to be a lawyer, and this teaches you about how crimes are committed,” he said.

Cathy Noriega, also 16, said she was attracted by the guns. The group uses compressed-air guns — known as airsoft guns, which fire tiny plastic pellets — in the training exercises, and sometimes they shoot real guns on a closed range.

“I like shooting them,” Cathy said. “I like the sound they make. It gets me excited.”

And of course the picture:

Yeah... it's that creepy.

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Interview: Rob Panico

Jumping in Pools is continuing its interview series with its sixth installment. Our last two interviews has been with a black Republican leader, Wayne Perriman, and with former Bush speechwriter Troy Senik. A resident of Middleburgh, NY, Rob Panico is a politically astute organizer. Rob was an integral part of Schoharie County's Ron Paul 2008 campaign. A graduate of the University of Albany, Rob has graciously allowed us to interview him on his state of politics and the wider world.

1. What is the most pressing threat to the United States in the next five years? In the next twenty?

The United States government has wielded considerable influence in the world, having the ability to almost unilaterally sculpt the world order. The days of the United States government being a hegemonic "soft empire" are drawing to a close . How the nation adapts to these changes will largely define the collective threat levels faced by the population of individuals that reside within the borders of the USA. Let's keep in mind that the United States is a fictional entity and the threats that it faces to its existence are not necessarily the same as the threats faced by the individuals who are the citizens and residents of the lands under the political control of the US government.

Many more people die or are seriously injured in automobile accidents and from cardiac problems than from terrorism. Nonetheless, the government spends a disproportionate amount of money on anti-terrorism measures for a variety of reasons, but mostly to insure its own health rather than the health of its people.

The Boston Tea Party was an act of terrorism along with a whole variety of other actions committed by our terrorist founding fathers. In this day and age, a terrorist, as defined by the government, is anyone who threatens the government. We ought to be careful to not hype this threat of terrorism so much as to create a government tyranny which is a much worse threat to the life and liberty of its people. I firmly believe the USA as an idea can only fall from within. Citizens of high civic virtue must and ought to make it their duty to speak out against the loss of liberties and the violations of human rights, by ANY entity, especially including their own government. This is my definition of patriotism whereas placing your head in the sand makes a person an accomplice to injustice. Consider the citizens of Germany during the Nazi era and their level of guilt or innocence for going along with the programs and "just following orders". We must vigorously defend the 1st amendment so that the 2nd is never needed.

In terms of threats to individual residents of the nation, they are many and varied in nature. Health problems, financial distress, compartmentalization of morality according to role, and social discord are probably at the top of the list, generally speaking. Only a particular individual can fully know all of the the threats that face them personally.

The idea of the USA and the spirit which conceived it are a whole other matter. That idea is rapidly gaining in popularity again and so the future of the USA as an idea is very bright indeed. The torch grows brighter with each passing day. Sometimes, the philosophy of the the USA and its government are not synchronized. Likewise, sometimes the philosophy of the USA and the thinking of its people are also not synchronized. We have forgotten who we are as a people, and this is perhaps our greatest threat... that we roll over and submit to tyranny, having lost the memories of our forebears. It is time to stop blindly pledging allegiance to something which no longer represents that which is described in that very pledge and work to again make it so through education, community involvement, and civic virtue.

2. Much has been made about the candidacy of Ron Paul in 2007-2008. Do you feel that in 2012, a third-party candidate can achieve a large following?

Ron Paul ran for nomination as a Republican candidate. I don't believe that a third party candidate will have any chance at the presidency until reforms are made to the electoral process and third party candidates are invited to attend the debates. Sadly, the size of the following of any candidate who is not mainstream, is still heavily dependent on them being able to get their message out via mainstream media channels, especially television. While the Internet is continuing to surprise many people, it is still not capable of sparking majority support for such a candidate. So long as television favors only status quo candidates who are picked and approved by the establishment, the people will have no true representatives in their government.

3. Do you believe that the government is telling us an accurate depiction of the state of the economy?

The government consists of many different agencies. The government as a whole does not agree with itself. That said, government agencies are overwhelmingly staffed by economists from the Keynesian school of economics, which is incapable of providing solutions to this economic crisis. The treasury department, the congress, and the federal reserve system are most to blame for the current crisis but are also the primary government and quasi-government spokesmen for the economy, which doesn't bode well for the public receiving accurate information, since there is no incentive for these groups to provide it and every incentive to obfuscate it.


4. Which is more likely by 2012, hyperinflation or massive deflation?

We are primarily mired in a monetary system crisis. What happens depends on how quickly a new, stable monetary system is put in place globally. I believe we are looking at a very long, extended period of stagflation. This is where we have economic recession mixed with high inflation. Inflation will be most pronounced for all commodities, including food. Other asset class prices may actually continue to adjust downward as a result of de-leveraging of assets and defaults on debts. I'm expecting the Dow Jones to continue to move downward in price for the next few years.


5. What are some steps that folks in Schoharie County and other rural areas can undertake to insulate themselves from the overall problems facing the nation?

It is impractical, unproductive, and probably impossible to view the county as separate from the state and the nation. This is a global crisis and it will effect Schoharie as it will effect everywhere else. Local action is still important and more local organization will appear in response to a loss of services coming from higher government authorities and from loss of employment on the part of residents. Residents of the county could take the initiative in any of the following areas to improve the standard of living for all residents:
(1) Immediately curb government spending by putting pressure on elected officials and voting in more frugal officials. Press for tax cuts. Remove redundancies in government through greater efficiency. Cut waste. Become less dependent on higher government authorities for subsidies.
(2) Increase production of locally owned and operated agriculture and end dependence on GMO seeds provided by large conglomerates, such as Monsanto. Residents should plant gardens. The cannery due to open in the county soon will be a major help.
(3) Provide increased locally produced, renewable energy from biomass, solar, wind, geothermal, etc.
(4) Save money in the form of precious metals, especially silver, to protect local capital.
(5) Purchase firearms and ammunition and join the local rod and gun club.
(6) Elect a pro-liberty Sheriff who understands the constitution and will defend the rights and freedoms of county residents. Sheriffs are not intended to be merged in with higher levels of law enforcement. End cooperation between federal agencies and local law enforcement. Put an end to using prisons as a revenue source – no housing out of county prisoners.
(7) Form local co-operatives for consumers and producers. Expand farmer's markets and local distribution of goods and services. Create a co-operative health clinic.
(8) Encourage more volunteerism and local control of education. Form extracurricular home based study groups for children, which include many parents, to augment the educational experience.
(9) Expand the Schoharie County gift certificates program and provided silver backing to all notes issued. Essentially, transform them into Schoharie County specific silver certificates, issued directly by the chamber of commerce.
(10) Create local capital funds, managed by local broker-dealers, to invest in local businesses and projects. Localize financing as much as possible. Issue corporate bonds for local companies to raise money for operations and improvements.
(11) Spread all forms of knowledge that residents will need to survive and prosper as free people.


6. In the next five years, is there anything you see occuring that will be a total shock to America/the World. (ex-- technology, medical advances, terrorism, war, shortages, political shifts, etc.)

Perhaps not in the next five years, but certainly at some point in the near term future. There is actually an energy abundance in the form of renewable energy, but obsolete institutions stand in the way of fully realizing the potential of these sources. Terrorism, as we now understand it, has much to do with government policy and so will wax or wane in response to our policy directions. There is an increased likelihood of war over natural resources. There are new military technologies which the public is largely unaware of which have rendered all conventional weapons obsolete for purposes other than intervention in backward parts of the world. New cancer research, especially electro-therapy and radiotherapy will not only cure cancer but also unlock the mysteries of aging. Many of our current innovations are held back by the inefficiency of our public-private form of economic organization and a lack of political will to change it.


7.. What is the biggest threat to the Constitution?

The founders set up a system, manifest in the original constitution and its first ten amendments, which was a republic. To maintain the republican form of government, a balance was created with checks and balances. This balance has been completely thrown off over the years and we no longer have a functional republic as originally intended. Our checks and balances have largely collapsed as the state has emerged as a highly centralized, national entity which exercises federal supremacy over most of the globe, through the executive and its many agencies, and various "public-private partnerships" (corporatism). The biggest single threat to the Constitution is ignorance. Ignorance of the intent of the framers. Ignorance of their experiences and motivations. Ignorance about how similar the US government has become to the old British empire. Ignorance of history. Ignorance of the purpose and spirit of the document. A lack of understanding on the part of government officials and the general public. One can neither honor nor protect something that one does not understand. The popular idea that the Constitution is archaic, obsolete, or a living document are all highly counter-productive in this regard. Ignorance about the difference between government and people. Ignorance of politics, ethics, philosophy, history, and law among the general population. Ignorance about the monetary system. Ignorance of what is meant by terms such as democracy, republic, capitalism, socialism, corporatism, free market, liberty, and freedom are hurting the USA as an idea, a people, and a government lawfully constituted. When ignorance is replaced by knowledge and apathy replaced by conviction, we will be a constitutional republic once again.


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Joe's Lock of the Week

With all of the news coming from the wide world of sports, Dr. Joe has decided to put his mind at work again to earn you lots of valuable cash. So don't spend that alone time with your wife or kids, but instead go to the local sports bar and bet on Dr. Joe's prescription for brokeness.

This week's pick:
Alex RodriguezWith the shocking news coming out of the baseball about Alex Rodriguez taking steroids, we must realize what this means. Alex Rodriguez is going to be a much better player while on steroids! In 2002, he hit 57 smackers. Now that we know he's taking the juice, we can reasonably expect that he will hit at least 80 home runs a season.With him hitting 85 dingers in the middle of the Yankees lineup, we can expect the Yankees to win at least 140 games. This is even if Andy Pettite loses both of his arms and CC Sabathia's legs break from his girth. My prediction is that the A-Rod will hit 88 home runs by the All Star Break, and may wind up with 300 RBIs.Impossible, you say? It is now widely reported that Rodriguez is able to crush a piece of coal into a diamond. And yes, that makes him even richer. Perhaps he can use this diamond to give to that fox Madonna. Grrrowl.

So put all of your beans on this hot rod. Expect a lot, and make sure to not piss him off. He's been taking enough juice to make Gandhi rip your throat out.

50 beans!

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PREDICTION: The Dinar's Final Value

I was driving home today and thought of how the dinar might wind up. Feel free to post your own predictions as a response or challenge my assumptions.

What we know:

A lop would cause the Central Bank of Iraq to bring in all of the existing dinars, print new dinars, and then distribute the new currency. All of this would be expensive and time-consuming. Iraq has basically had to do this twice over the last 20 years and likely wouldn't desire to do it again.

If Iraq chose to grow the dinar, a RV of 1/1 would cause massive inflation and could cause the collapse of the Iraqi economy. An immediate shift could be detrimental to the already fragile economy.

Iraq's new currency is well-made. It is made of complex fibers and all have a watermark. The 25k note has security thread and color-shifting material. The putative value of this note currently is about $20. However, the high quality of the note is more like one worth about $100.

The dinar is pegged to the US dollar.

Knowing these things:

Iraq will likely continue to slow grow the dinar. With the rapid growth of the economy (even with lower oil prices), inflation is likely to pick up. If this happens, then the interest rates will likely be raised by the CBI. When this happens, the dinar increases in value.

If inflation causes a pickup in interest rates and the tightening of the money supply, then the overall M2 will decrease. Even a decrease of 10%, coupled with economic growth of 10% could have the effect of an over 20% pickup in the value of the dinar.

It is likely that the 25k dinar note would remain the largest bill. In this fashion, it could happen that this would be tied to the largest American bill in circulation, the $100 bill. In this case, if the 25k dinar note is roughly around $100, then the value of the dinar could range between one quarter and one half of a cent.

In this scenario, if the dinar was worth a half a cent, then the 50 dinar note would be worth a quarter, or enough to buy a gallon of gas in Iraq. This would become a practical small bill, similar to our $1 bill.

The slow grow of the dinar, coupled with the growth of the economy would likely cause the Iraqi economy and government to have increased spending power, which could further aid an economic revival. This could happen without the extra costs of a lop or the high risk of hyperinflation (which would be counterproductive) of an RV.

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Joe's Superbowl Lock of the Week

Dah-dah-dah-dah

Dah-dah-dah-dah

Dah-dah-dah-daaaah

Du-du-du-du-du!

It feels like a while but Dr. Joe C. is reporting for duty in order to line your pockets with lots and lots of cash! I know that a lot of you will probably be hammered or staring at some babe, but it's about time you put some cold hard cash down on the game.

It just so happens that Joe C., PhD (analytical physics, UC Berkeley) has some inside information on the game. And it also so happens that in 29 years of calling foot-ball, Joe C. has never, EVER gotten a call wrong. EVER!!!!

So now, for our listening and reading audience, Joe C. will provide for you, free of charge, the next winner of the Super Bowl.

The weather in Tampa is supposed to be a climid 65 degrees on Sunday, and the skies are going to open with the personal blessing of John Madden (rest his soul), on this, the true day of the football year.

And when the kickoff actually arrives, it will show that one of these two teams will have what it takes to take it all the way!

So our winner:

The Oakland Raiders

That's right. You heard it here first. When you make 100 beans on Monday morning, remember to call your good pal Joe. Remember to give good ol' Joe C. a cut, so I can move out of my mother's attic.

With Jim Plunkett in the pocket, the arm of the team is unbeatable. That guy is able to hit the stink off of-- something that stinks something real bad.

Coach Tom Flores knows how to get the attention of his men together. I mean, if he was able to get Cliff Branch to run more than five yards, he must be able to levitate or some other voodoo.

And Bob Chandler's expected to have up to seven TDs on Sunday. Seven, you ask? Wouldn't that break some sort of record? Well, I don't know. But it sure sounds nice.

Hell, even Derrick-freakin'-Ramsey's gonna score two touchdowns.

This game is the lock of the locks. I mean, not even zombie Houdini with five arms and a catheter could pull this shit off.

Final score: Oakland Raiders 132, What-er-place No-Balls 2. (Oakland gave them a safety to make the idiots feel better.

That's Joe C., known for service!

Just a Thought

I was thinking a couple of months back about the prophecies in the Book of Revalation.

In it it tells about the Whore of Babylon and the trials and tribulations of the people of Earth. Well, I figured that maybe the sacking of Baghdad in 1258 by the leader of the Mongols, Hulagu Khan, may have been a key step in the prophecy.

Those of the Christian faith were tested by the expansion of the Mongols and the Turks. The sack of Baghdad could have been the part of the prophecy concerning Babylon. Plagues recently had ravaged Europe and Asia (Black Death, anyone), and it appeared that life as we knew it was over.

And also, the Battle of Ayn Jalut in 1260 was a battle, but not an actual battle. The Mongol forces were defeated before Hulagu was able to gather all of his forces....
Ayn Jalut is not too far removed from... Megiddo, also known as Armegeddon. The actual battle of Armegeddon was not to take place, but the preparations were supposed to be carried out....
Similar.

Just a thought.
Comment if you have one.