Friday, June 4, 2010

Toomey Leads Sestak by Seven

 Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster out there, has released a new poll which places Republican Pat Toomey a full seven points ahead of Congressman Joe Sestak for the Pennsylvania Senate race. Not only are the results outside of the margin of error, it also pushes Toomey near 50%, an excellent sign in a good Republican year.

This also hurts Sestak at a vulnerable time. First, his surge from beating Arlen Specter in the Democratic Primary is fading. Secondly, the talk of the potential job offer from the Obama Administration may be damaging his credibility. While the offer should not necessarily hurt Sestak himself, voter's don't like to hear a candidate's name and "bribery" or "felony" in the same sentence.

Toomey: 45%
Sestak: 38%
Undecided/other: 17%.

12% are undecided while 5% choose another candidate. If these numbers are accurate, Sestak has to win all 12% to get to 50%-- a hard propostition without a game changer. I expect to see some attack ads come September/October.

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