Franken Wins in Minnesota

We've been doing a lot of writing about this subject. After months of contentious fighting, it appears that Al Franken (D) has defeated incumbent Norm Coleman (R). This comes after a lot of "funny business," including 'misplaced ballots' and poorly marked votes.

Of course, this 225 vote lead comes despite the fact that at least 650 absentee ballots were not counted. This is suspicious and comes after votes for Franken began "appearing" after the November 4 election.

Naturally, it's not totally over, but it appears that it is for all intents and purposes. Coleman's chances appear to be nil.

The court ruling suggested Coleman's latest request should be a post-election consideration. The Coleman campaign, meanwhile, said it was determined to take the question to court.

"Today's ruling, which effectively disregards the votes of hundreds of Minnesotans, ensures that an election contest is now inevitable," said Coleman attorney Fritz.

Well, things don't always seem too good. We'll see where it goes.

How Much Did Palin Actually Help Chambliss?

As just about everyone in the United States knows by now, Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) won his Senate race, defeating the Democrats' hope for a 60-seat filibuster-proof supermajority. And one of the repeated themes of the analysis is the Chambliss won so easily thanks to the help of one Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. Chambliss himself said :

"Sarah Palin came in on the last day, did a fly-around and, man, she was dynamite. We packed the houses everywhere we went. And it really did allow us to peak and get our base fired up," Chambliss said.

"I mean, I can't overstate the impact she had down here," he continued. "When she walks in a room, folks just explode. And they really did pack the house everywhere we went. She's a dynamic lady, a great administrator, and I think she's got a great future in the Republican Party."

But it doesn't seem like she was the make-or-break. Obviously she helped Chambliss get out the Conservative Christian base, but something about the numbers doesn't show a massive surge. Chambliss won last night's race by a hearty 14%. However, on November 4, he only led by three.

Now, Georgia is one of the redder states in the Union, so did Palin really push him over the top? Instead, it looks like it wasn't the person who was there, but it was the person who wasn't there that made a difference. It appears that since Obama wasn't on the ballot, many Democrats didn't see the purpose in going out to vote:

Martin appeared to suffer mightily from a lack of African-American turnout, which dropped from 30 percent of early votes four weeks ago to around 20 percent in the runoff.

For Republicans and strategists that think that the GOP can take the Congress back anytime soon cannot underestimate the celebrity and gravity of the President-Elect. He can push people out to vote that wouldn't do so anyway, and can even rope in some Independents and Republicans to boot. He was probably good for 8% of the difference on November 4. The Democrats have a strong down-ticket leader now. College kids and the like are less likely to pay attention to other officeseekers, just as long as they have the valuable "D" next to their name.

So is Sarah Palin the savior of the GOP? Obviously she got at least some of the vote out for Senator Chambliss. However, she was insignificant compared to President-Elect Obama.

Election Night Photos

Election night with the Avitabile family and Joseph Chicoine.
Place: Avitabile Manor
Time: November 4th, 2008

Not the happiest night

The Beginning of the Obama Era

Hopefully the early reports of McCain doing better are, in fact, holding true. If not, it appears that this may be the beginning of the Obama Era.

It will most likely last between four and eight years.

So, what do we have to look forward to?

1. Cuts in military spending and cuts on new programs that can save American lives.
2. Raising taxes, most likely also including the middle class.
3. Celebrations in much of the Middle East and Europe.
4. The "repudiation" of the Republican Party, pushed in everyone's face repeatedly.
5. The "end of the Reagan era" repeated constantly.
6. Further expansion of Russia and the buildup of China.
7. You might be called racist for disagreeing with policy.
8. Perhaps the semi-permanent rise of young people voting.
9. More funding for ACORN.
10. A feeling of, "Why didn't we vote for McCain again?"

McCain Staging Upset?

Reading all of the posts on the internets, is it possible that McCain is staging a surprise? It appears that many of the Obama supporters may just be all talk. College kids and those registered by ACORN may not vote in the numbers Obama needs.

This comes as there are reports of rain in Democratic areas such as Northern Viriginia and Philly. If this holds, even ten-thousand voters turned away from Obama could flip the states.

I've also heard positive polling data about Pennsylvania. I'm a little skeptical, but if the numbers are anywhere near true, then we might be in for a treat.

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Today's Winner-- President Bush

I saw an article from RCP today stating that President Bush will be the definite loser of the election today. However, it seems like Bush may actually be the big winner.

Here's why:
*Bush's Presidency coincided with economic growth between 2003-2007. If Obama raises energy prices and crashes the markets, President Bush's economy may seem just fine.
* President Bush has kept us safe from terrorist attack. Considering Joe Biden has already guaranteed a crisis, Bush's track record may still hold up.
*President Bush unfortunately has presided over one of the largest expansions of government. However, this may be small in comparison to the next four years with a Democratic executive and legislative branch.
* The military budget may be shrunk, making it more difficult to respond to terrorist and other foreign threats.

So make sure that we pick the right person for the job-- VOTE McCAIN!


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Election... Irregularities

Hey y'all,

With things like this happening, what do we think the odds are that there are going to be severe election 'irregularities' tomorrow. Will ACORN actually affect some states' results? Will thousands of ballots just 'appear?'

I'm not saying that the entire thing can be taken by fraud, but will a lot of people coming into vote that may not know that they need to be registered (college kids), what are the odds that things will get too complicated to count some ballots?

In addition, will the complaints of voter suppression still pop up, and will they be justified?

Remember everyone, VOTE MCCAIN!

Barack Obama Doesn't Care About Coal Miners

This title, is of course, modeled after Kanye West's infamous comments during Hurricane Katrina.

For all of his talk of getting us off foreign energy, we get Obama saying that he'll, in effect, cripple the American economy.

So, if somebody wants to build a coal plant, they can — it’s just that it will bankrupt them, because they are going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.

But wait, there's more:

You know, when I was asked earlier about the issue of coal, uh, you know — Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.

So if Obama becomes President, and we cut down on domestic energy production and gas prices will go down? Something is wrong with this fuzzy math.

Special thanks for the quotes from Hot Air.

Hitchens: McCain Will Lose

Christopher Hitchens, one of my favorite writers and contrarians, has a column declaring the election lost for McCain.

Hitchens is very bright but still endorsed Obama not too long ago, despite the fact that he deeply respects McCain. It can be surmised that Sarah Palin had a lot to do with that.

Some snippets:

The Republican effort deserves to be kicked down the stairs. "It's even worse than Dole in 1996," moaned one of its senior consultants to me. I'd say it was much worse. So I don't feel like hiding behind the usual "too close to call". I think that the swing states will break for Obama and so will some crucial House and Senate races break for the Democrats. And I think the right wing sees it coming as clearly as I do.

Much as I respect and like Hitchens, I really want him to be wrong on this one. So vote! Get people around the area to vote for John McCain!


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November 3rd Predictions

OK.... some almost final predictions (there may be some tomorrow). My predictions of October 29 are also posted. The new ones are in bold.


NATIONAL: Obama 49.5 %, 49.6%, McCain 47.2%, 47.1%, Barr 1.0%, 1.0%, Nader 0.9% 0.9%, McKinney 0.9%, 0.9%, other 0.6% 0.6%
SOME IMPORTANT STATES:
New Hampshire: Obama 50.6%, 50.2%, McCain 48.9%, 49.1%
Pennsylvania: Obama 50.9%, 51.3%, McCain 48.1%47.9
Iowa: Obama 53.4%, 53%, McCain 45.4%, 45.9% (flip)
New Mexico: Obama 51.2%, 50.4%, McCain 48.0%, 48.4% (flip)
Ohio: McCain 49.6%, 49.6%, Obama 48.5%, 49.3%
North Carolina: McCain 54.3%, 54.3%, Obama 45.6%, 45.5%
Florida: McCain 51.0%, 50.5%, Obama 48.3%, 48.4%
Virginia: McCain b50.1%, 50.1%, Obama 49.3%, 48.9%
Colorado: Obama 52.3%, 52.5%, McCain 46.7%, 46.5% (flip)
Indiana: McCain 54.3%, 54.3%, Obama 45.4%, 45.4


If you support McCain and want to avoid this, VOTE!

If McCain had Chosen Romney, Would He Be Doing Better?

I was reading an article on Talk Left about this very question. And to be sure, it comes from a biased source. However, I feel that Romney would have been a worse choice than Sarah Palin. A few points why:

1. Palin is an authentic middle-class woman, Romney is a rich businessman.
2. Palin worked her way up to governor because she fought corruption. Romney did the same by having a lot of money.
3. Romney's an expert on Wall Street. Sarah Palin know about Main Street.
4. Romney was (and is) perceived as a phony. Palin, much as some people don't like her, has always been seen as stating her opinions.
5. Romney's flaws and problems were already being researched by the Democrats and some even came out by Republicans during the primaries.
6. Romney's positions on issues while Governor of Massachusetts (more moderate positions which I like) were changed just to run for the Republican nomination. What happens if he becomes President.

Palin wasn't my first choice, but McCain is. Remember to Vote November 4th and get people out.

McCain Better win... or Else part II

In addition to Ohio and a slew of other red states, McCain needs either two of these combinations of states to win the presidency:
1. Virginia and Colorado
2. Pennsylvania

These three states would probably sway the election if it is close. Obama has 239 electoral votes in the bag (Kerry states+Iowa and New Mexico-Pennsylvania and New Hampshire). New Hamsphire is irrelevant in this discussion because it only has 4 electoral votes. Winning Colorado and Virginia minus Pennsylvania would net McCain a 274-264 electoral college win (Minus New Hampshire) and winning Pennsylvania minus Virginia would net McCain a 273-265 victory in the electoral college. Nailbiting wins but it gets the job done for McCain.

Lastly, as a counterpoint to Matt's post about factors which will help Obama.
1. Pollsters don't usually count people who only use cell phones in their polls and cell phone only users would most likely vote for Obama.
2. Obama's get-out the vote effort compared to McCain's is like comparing a Ferrari to a Yugo.

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Early Voting Boosting McCain

There have been contradictory numbers and punditry on this, but it appears that McCain isn't being mauled in early voting. However, if the test of early voting is the 2000 results, the following must be considered:

According to some polls, Obama is running near what Kerry was running. Or:

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Considering that some folks were expecting an Obama blowout, it doesn't look so bad for John McCain.
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Just One

Mud is slung throughout the Presidential Campaign. Accusations are made, lies are levied. Yet, to even the least astute followers of politics, one thing is true: many accusations have at least a kernel of truth in them. But let us take a step back. When looking at Senator Obama's run for the White House, many things have popped up about his past. Some most assuredly false, but some that may have truth in them. Here is the point: you and I know many of the accusations are not true, but what if just one is? Just one. The thing is, Obama has so many "connections," that the chances of one, or two, or three, being real is moderately high. But just one true connection is a terrible, disgusting thing.

Look at all these accusations: Obama's possible connection with William Ayres and Ayres' terrorist ties. His possible ties to Rashid Khalidi. Senator Obama's connection with the radical precher Jeremiah Wright. Obama's connection with ACORN and its voter fraud. Obama's constant changing of who is to be taxed, how much, and why. Obama's idea of "spreading the wealth." His knowledge that his aunt was living here in the U.S. illegally. The accusation that terrorists want Obama to win over McCain. The accusation that Obama is under-qualified and not ready to lead. That Obama has no idea what he's doing and doesn't have the knowledge required to lead the world.

With so many accusations, all of them cannot be true... But just one is bad enough. Just one is a terrible thing that would cast Obama's Presidency and personality in shadow. So I sit here wondering, with so many claims being levied against him, so much mud being slung, what if just one were true? I shudder to think of the consequences, and so should you.