With all the talk about McCain focusing on winning Pennsylvania, another state is more important in his fight to win the Presidency: Ohio.
Here are the reasons why this is the case:
1. No Republican presidential candidate has ever won the election without winning Ohio.
2. Winning Ohio is a prerequisite to winning Pennsylvania. Both states have similar demographic profiles, but Ohio is generally a few more points more Republican than Pennsylvania. According to 538, John McCain wins Ohio 92.2% of the time when he wins Pennsylvania.
3. Ohio's 20 electoral votes means that Barack Obama has to only defend states that Kerry won in 2004 to win the election. The only two Kerry states which I think are realistically in play for McCain are Pennsylvania (which is closely related to what Ohio does) and New Hampshire, which only has 4 electoral votes. I can see scenarios of McCain winning the election by winning Ohio and Pennsylvania but losing a state like Florida or Virginia, but I don't see McCain winning without winning Ohio.
Thus, for all of you McCain supporters out there, pray for an Ohio victory on Tuesday. Otherwise he is in deep doodoo.
Also, if you have a chance visit 538.com. It has a treasure trove of electoral data and served as the basis for my analyis.
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2 comments:
Excellent analysis. About a month ago I played around with some electoral maps and with a 2004 esqe map, I saw McCain needed Ohio AND Florida... He couldn't do with just one.
2008 has turned out a LOT different that 2004 and 2000... which is kinda nice to see, but yet oh so unpredictable.
Great blog! Thanks for stopping by the Firebase. I have you up on my new blog list and World Threats sounds good too. Stay in touch.
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