The Death of the Republican Party?

I am writing as a moderate-to-liberal Republican. I support McCain and supported him and Giuliani during the primaries. However, it seems like the Republican party may be falling into a malaise that it may not get out of for some time.

1. If McCain loses, then the Evangelical wing of the party may feel that it threw in with a moderate candidate and it has cost them an election. On the contrary, a moderate candidate had the best shot at winning this year, and McCain attempted to do that. If the conservative base decides that it has to pull farther right, then the next election may be a give-up to Obama.

2. The split between social conservatives and hawks may increase. This may occur if the social-conservative base decides that the pro-interventionist policy of the Bush Administration has cost too much money and is not accomplishing its goals. If this happened, the schism between the two groups would damage many national Republican candidates.

3. The split between wings of the party may result in a 1968 breakup vis-a-vis the Democrats. The new Democratic party was not able to win two consecutive Presidential elections until 1996. And the three elections they won between 1968-2008 were by moderate-to-conservative Southern Democrats.

4. The involvement of young people in the electoral process may portend a larger Democratic base. If this trend actualizes, the Republican Party will probably need 20 years for these voters to mature to become Republicans.

5. Because of issues such as immigration reform, the Republicans may abandon President Bush's outreach program to Hispanic and minority voters. If this happens, expect the Republican Party to become more and more marginalized. However, the rise of Bobby Jindal (R-LA) may portend a shift to a broader reach for the party.


All in all, the Republicans need to think 10-20 years out instead of attempting to just rally the base every time. Bush did well by combining the two tactics in 2004 and McCain attempted this, but the future is where elections are held. Howard Dean's 50-state strategy was a good one. If Republicans can learn to do this (and keep their promises) they may win an election sometime soon.
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