Saturday, November 1, 2008

Why Obama May Still Lose

I think that these may be significant factors in the election, but I still believe that Obama will win the popular vote 49.9%-46.5%.

However, certain factors may be being overlooked by many Obama and McCain fans and the mainstream media (duh).

1. Old people vote in record numbers. They tend to be more conservative and considering that McCain is not just one of them but also a war hero should push them towards him.

2. Military votes are not counted in standard polls. With hundreds of thousands of voters voting absentee, a 3-1 McCain taking may flip a state with many veterans (Virginia).

3. College kids are usually the loudest about voting and the people who do the least of it.

4. Undecided voters are more likely to know who McCain is and vote for a guy they trust instead of a guy they like.

5. Bin Laden's endorsement hasn't come out yet.

6. Obama's followers may feel that since he has a lead, their vote won't count. Let's hope.


CKAinRedStateUSA said...

Just my opinion, but the way the race has tightened, given that Obama has been campaigning in places that "polls" have shown him to be well ahead, given that from wild "poll" data that it appears that people are not telling the truth to pollsters, given that Obama's socialist views are finally being exposed, given his criticism of Joe the Plumber and his general mocking of ordinary people, given his misogynist attack (and that of his surrogates, the OMSM)--given these and the fact that things always are different in the voting booth, I think there will be a big surprise Tuesday night.

And I don't mean that they'll be dancing in the streets in South Side Chicago.

Brian C. said...

These are all still important factors...

The most important factor in this race is the get out the vote efforts by far... especially the youth vote.