Friday, July 10, 2009

2010 United States Senate elections - a quick look.

Republican seats in trouble :
Kentucky - The Senate seat in Kentucky is mainly in trouble because of Senator Bunning, who is one of the most unpopular elected Republican Senators in the Nation. However, if Bunning retires - Republicans should hold on to the seat without problem, most expect Bunning to retire in the coming months.

Missouri - Long time Senator Kit Bond is retiring from his long held seat in Missouri, and with a liked Democrat running against Congressman Roy Blunt, most expect a very close election. Though there has not been a poll done on this election in quite some time, the Democrat was leading by 1-3 points during the last poll in March. With Obama's disapproval numbers skyrocketing, and Missouri voting for McCain & still being a Republican state, Blunt has a very good chance to keep the seat in Republican hands.

New Hampshire - Senator Judd Gregg is retiring. It appeared the Republicans could not find a good candidate to challenge Democrat Congressman Paul Hodes, however that is over - as the state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte will be running for the seat. She is a very popular, young Republican (40) who has a better then great shot of retaining the seat for the Republican party.

Ohio - Long time Serbian-American (I couldn't resist) Senator Voinovich is retiring after several terms in office, the Democrats have a tough primary up ahead, while the Republicans have Congressman Rob Portman as the main candidate for the Senate job. According to recent polling, neither Democrat candidate really has a good lead on Portman, and with Obama's approval sinking in Ohio - look out for a tough election.

Republicans should keep at least three of these states, however all four front runner GOP candidates are well liked & known, so hopefully we can escape with a zero loss Senate election season in 2010.

Democrat seats in trouble :
Illinois - Senator Roland Burris will not seek a full term in the Senate, probably because of his horrible poll numbers from the state of Illinois. The main Republican candidate is Congressman Mark Kirk, who is not well liked in Conservative circles, and the Democrats have a Pandora of candidates, however Kirk leads against most Democrat candidates that have been talked about. This election is a pure of a tossup as you will find.

Connecticut - Senator Chris Dodd has been involved in so many scandals, it is even causing Democrats to consider the Republican candidate. Moderate Republican Rob Simmons holds a near double-digit lead on Dodd for the Senate race, Dodd is highly unpopular & is trying to hide his scandals via television commercials. This election could either way, however the Republican is leading as of now.

New York (special election) - Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is still not that popular within her own party, and the Republican party has two possible good candidates who could give her a run for the Senate seat. Gillibrand is expected to face a tough primary battle with Congresswoman Maloney who Bill Clinton supports, and Gillibrand is expected to face a tough election possibly from Congressman Pete King or even former Governor George Pataki who is leading in the pools. While this seat should go Democrat, the Republicans have a shot.

Pennsylvania - Senator turncoat Arlen Specter will be challenged by a little known Democrat Congressman in the primary., and he will be challenged by Conservative Republican Pat Toomey in the general election. Both are expected to take a toll on Specter, and with Toomey becoming more & more liked, along with the Democrat opponent - the 2010 Senate election in the state of Pennsylvania should be interesting. The Democrat candidate should win, however there is a possibility for a Republican victory.

Colorado - Little known Michael Bennent in Colorado does not really have a strong Republican challenger yet, however he does not perform well in polls when faced with well known Republicans in the state. Bennett has made several unpopular votes while in the Senate chambers, and the state for the most part still leans Republican. You really cannot make an educated guess in this election, as Bennett does not have strong polling numbers, yet no-one really knows if any big Republicans will run in this election as well.

The Republicans have 4 seats in trouble, 2 really in trouble, the Democrats have 5 in trouble, with 2-3 really in trouble. I am biased in my support for Conservative Republicans, but I base all that I right on facts, speculation, and polling data. Republicans should hold on to all four seats, the Democrats might hold on to at least three (I suspect Connecticut & Colorado will fall to GOP hands). I might be right, I might be wrong, for all I know - at the end of the 2010 Senate elections, it might be the same = 40 Republicans, 60 Democrats, I hope not.

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rrlieberma said...

Re: New York.
Shame for your comment that President Clinton supports Maloney. He is doing a fundraiser for her as one of a series with other Congressional reps who supported Hillary Clinton in her presidential run. Earlier he did a hugely successful event for Kirsten Gillibrand who he praised for her work in the Senate and spoke of as a wonderful successor to Senator Clinton.

Maloney's attempt to spin this IOU as support for her has backfired with a strong statement of clarification from President Clinton's spokesperson and a retreat by Maloney from announcing her challenge to Gillibrand.

Kirsten will win because she is a smart, progressive, effective advocate for New York which is reflected in the growing number of endorsements from opinion leaders, organizations and unions all across the state.

Mr. K said...

Considering I could care less what liberals are doing in New York, other then screwing it up, I only heard the beginning shots between Maloney-Clinton-Gillibrand, I never heard the apology, etc. I could care less who the democrat is, I am a Republican all the way.

Effective advocate for New York? She has one job as the Democrat Senator from New York - vote the same way as Chuck Schumer.

King 2010.