Sunday, November 15, 2009

"Is this Heaven?"

"No. It's Iowa" - Kevin Costner from the hit baseball movie, The Field of dreams.

With the 2012 Presidential election coming faster and harder then most expected it would, numerous potential Republican hopefuls are swarming to the state of Iowa, in hopes of serenading a state which means absolutely nothing, and it would be wasteful to spend political resources on a state which has been in Democratic control for over two decades, at least in regards to Presidential elections.

While some in the Huckabee camp will warn others that Iowa means a whole hell of a lot, I would argue New Hampshire and South Carolina mean the most, because New Hampshire is a state Republicans can actually win, and South Carolina is the first of the all important Southern states to vote, Iowa is a state which has gone with the Republican nominee once over the past two decades.

1988 Presidential election :
(D) Michael Dukakis - 670,557
(R) George H.W. Bush - 545,355

1992 Presidential election :
(D) Bill Clinton - 586,353
(R) George H.W. Bush - 504,891
(I) Ross Perot - 253,468

1996 Presidential election :
(D) Bill Clinton - 620,258
(R) Bob Dole - 492,644
(I) Ross Perot - 105,159

2000 Presidential election :
(D) Al Gore - 638,517
(R) George Bush - 634,373

2004 Presidential election :
(R) George Bush - 751,957
(D) John Kerry - 741,898

2008 Presidential election :
(D) Barack Obama - 828,940
(R) John McCain - 682,379

The 2012 Presidential hopes of the Republican nominee will not be decided by Iowa, it will be decided by states like Ohio, Indiana, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Nebraska's second congressional district. The 2012 Presidential election will depend on the success of a strong candidate during the primaries, a candidate who can claim the Nomination with over 50% of the vote, unlike Senator McCain who was able to win the Republican nomination with just 47.25% of the vote.

If Republicans place too much political capital in Iowa, it will hurt us in New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia, states where we really need to focus on, states we can win, unlike Iowa.

Invest in Iowa now, regret later

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