Interview: Jazz Shaw

Jazz Shaw is a freelance writer, regular columnist for Roger Simon's Pajamas Media and Assistant Editor for The Moderate voice. Jumping in Pools is happy to bring you our thirteenth interview in our series.

1. Recently you wrote that Sarah Palin's resignation as Alaska governor represented career suicide. Do you believe that her resignation could allow her to run in 2016 or 2020 instead of 2012?

Allowing her to run is one question. Anyone can run if they meet the virtually flaccid minimum qualifications. Could she win? That's another question entirely. Second chances are rare enough in politics. even with relatively little baggage trailing behind the candidate. Palin has attracted a rather unique "base" of her own which is both vocal and sizable, but still not a full, unadulterated roll call of the conservative GOP base. How much legs will such a base have? On the other side of the aisle, Howard Dean held a similarly vocal tribe, as did Hillary Clinton more recently. The chatter from both died down in relatively short order. Without public office, will Palin's clan hold together with the same ferocity they now feel?

The worst possible outcome is, of course, if she prompts her followers into forming a third party for an independent run. (This is a proposal I'm seeing quite a bit from the online Palin faithful.) Were that the case, it wouldn't matter who seized the GOP nomination. Obama or any other Democrat could not only preside over an economy going up in flames, but hold Saturday barbecues on the East lawn cooking burgers over burning American flags and still win with a ten point margin.

Your specific question references whether her resignation "could allow" her a later run. The short answer is no. The DNC ads practically write themselves. "Sarah Palin had to cut and run before finishing even one term in the Alaska Governor's mansion. Will she even stick around for four years in the White House?" The resignation is not a plus in the political arena.

Can she overcome it for 2016 (assuming no GOP incumbent) or 2020? Anything is possible, I suppose, but the first two things she would need to do would be to hire her own personal Karl Rove for campaign management and a Republican Rahm Emanuel for staffing. Palin has, thus far, been absolutely horrible at staffing. She surrounds herself with incompetent, inadequate players who do nothing to shield her from the slings and arrows of the political battlefield. She has also been wounded beyond description from her inept handling of the media and her failure to be able to deliver on the podium at key moments. Observe. for the latest example, her speech announcing her departure from the Governor's mansion. It was nothing short of a rambling, ill constructed train wreck. And she had all the time she desired to prepare it.

Picture her in 2020 with no more time in office to command the spotlight and nothing else to add to her resume. She would be eight years out of office asking to be the next president with a few years as mayor of a small town and half a term as governor which she ran away from under pressure from the press and her opponent's slings and arrows. I'm not saying it's impossible, but the odds seem epic in nature against her.

2. If the American job market becomes more bleak, is it likely that the President will attempt a second stimulus plan?

At this point, there's very little that I would put beyond the audacity of either Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid. The public is already souring on the original Porkulus Bill quickly, but if those two want to do it, I don't see Obama having enough control over his own party to stop them. Personally, I think it would be suicide for him, but if the Democrats begin to sense that they are running the clock out, they may move to get as much of their wish list in place as possible.

The one bright spot on their horizon is if they mange to pass a full blown health care reform bill which includes a public option. While I feel it will be eventually disastrous to the country, it enjoys widespread support among voters due to an exceptional job of salesmanship by the Democrats. Also, it may well take several years for such ill effects to be felt, so the positive impact of that passage might buy the party enough good will to have the public tolerate a second stimulus bill for a couple of years.

3. If a second stimulus plan is introduced, is it likely that the American public will support it?

I think I covered that fairly well in the last question, but the baseline answer is no. Current polling seems to show that the public is well aware of the magnitude of the debt which is falling on the heads of not only us but our progeny. Results thus far have been marginal at best and projected benefits are lean in comparison. If there is another package, the Dems would need to make it a far more lean and focused proposal with Republican participation in order to not be a exercise in self-flagellation.

4. In 2012 or 2016, do you believe that a moderate Republican is more likely to win the White House than a conservative Republican?

Absolutely. If the GOP is to win - John McCain not withstanding - the voters will be looking for someone more in touch with the mainstream and not on the radical fringe of either ideology. The Democrats aren't going to put up a Barbara Boxer and the Republicans won't win with a Sam Brownback. Many GOP critics are fond of labeling Barack Obama as an extreme Leftist, but I definitely don't see it that way. Those may be his natural tendencies, but as I read the tea leaves, his biggest failure thus far was not being too Left, but too weak.

I sincerely believe that Obama came to office seeking a centrist, moderate approach to governance which would forge together ideas from both parties. There were enough Republicans willing to contribute to such plans to make such an alliance feasible. But Obama proved totally unable to take the helm as a powerful leader of his party and allowed Pelosi and Reid to walk all over him, dragging the agenda far to the left and, in the process, alienating the entire Republican membership.

Still, America will look for a true uniter, not a divider ( to quote a previous office holder) and eschew the radical Right as much as they will the radical Left.

5. Do you see any wild cards for the 2012 elections yet?

It's still so early that it's nearly impossible to say, given the way the current players are falling like dominoes. Unless Obama is really going down in flames, younger runners like Bobby Jindal will keep their heads down until 2020 or beyond. The real dark horses may come totally out of left field. We've turned to generals in times of security issues, so in a time of economic crisis we may look to a money man. I'd keep my eye on the genius of Omaha. Warren Buffett is a bit long in the tooth and far too rich to sit in the West Wing, but he's got a stable of younger CEO's who might fill the bill.

The furthest out possibilities are names we wouldn't even know today on the national level. We live in the era of Google and the vetting of candidates to a degree never known in the past. Some smart kids have begun heading out straight from college to positions on city councils or state assemblies, taking care to never stray or make any move that would show up in a police report or gossip column. One of them could, with the right handler, burst out of the shadows and make a sale to the national committees on their sparkling clean bona fides. It would probably be the young mayor of a medium sized, but economically powerful city, or pehaps an Attorney General or Comptroller of one of the largest cities. If that were to happen, keep your eyes on the Hill insider columns in early 2011. You never know what you might find. The one clue we may take from this is that it would very likely be a woman, no matter which party. There are plenty out there who haven't forgotten Hillary's 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling and they could justly feel that it's their turn next, but with a lady carrying less baggage than Palin.


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