Republican candidate Scott Brown, is not expected to win. However, his campaign is running strong with a united base, he is not associated with Congressional Democrats or the current Massachusetts executive branch, and Independents will decide this election. Scott Brown could win this election, however, that will take millions of dollars, the Conservative blogosphere doing its job, and some high level endorsements from leaders in the Conservative and Republican movements.
Florida's 19th congressional district special election
Congressman Wexler (D) is resigning after seven terms in Washington (due to take effect on January 3rd, 2010), leaving the unquestionable Democratic district in the balance for a few months. While several Democrats have announced their intentions to seek the nomination, just one Republican has announced his intention to seek the congressional seat.
Edward Lynch was defeated during the 2008 congressional elections, but with the election to be decided on April 13th, a small turnout benefiting the eventual Republican nominee, and the American attitude towards congressional Democrats as it is, he might be able to put up a good fight, however, it will be an uphill battle.
Hawaii's 1st congressional district special election
Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) is resigning to seek the Democratic nomination for the upcoming Hawaii Gubernatorial election, leaving Hawaii's first congressional district without a Representative for a few months, and a interesting special election. Though the congressional district has supported Abercrombie for decades, supported Obama with 70% of the vote (after Bush received 46% of the vote in 2004), and is expected to remain in Democratic hands, Hawaii Republicans do have a secret weapon.
Charles Djou is running on a united Republican brand. Djou has done the impossible, he has been elected to the Hawaii House of Representatives as a Republican, a major accomplishment on the Island state where Republicans usually go to die. With the American populace frowning on congressional Democrats, the support of Obama dithering, a special election in the middle of political slumber, and the fact Djou has won in Hawaii as a Republican, there is a real chance to win this congressional seat.
Not to mention, Hawaii's special election will not be like one we are use to. There will be just one election, where all candidates from both sides will be competing for a plurality, leaving the top vote getter as the victor who takes the seat, and resulting in a united GOP in excellent condition to sneak an Aloha victory.
Thoughts
We have three important and interesting elections upcoming. Senator Scott Brown has solid momentum in Massachusetts, Edward Lynch could perform well in Florida's 19th congressional special election, and Charles Djou can win this election, if Republicans turnout in bulk. While most Conservatives are looking forward to November 2010, I am looking towards the special elections to define our November chances, and our strengths in three reliable Democratic strongholds.
GOP 2010!
Scott Brown for Senate - http://brownforussenate.com/
Edward Lynch for House - http://www.electlynch.com/
Charles Djou for House - http://www.djou.com/index.html
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2 comments:
Useful observations, Mr K- looks like we don't have to wait til fall to deliver Dear Leader a little attitude adjustment after-all...
Linked at Reaganite Republican:
http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.com/2009/12/upcoming-special-elections-mighty-fine.html
Re: Mass. Special Election - perhaps no one has noticed how quiet the media pollsters have been on this particular race - the silence speaks volumes. Should Coakley be swinging to the finish line with even a 10 point lead, they'd be shouting it from the rooftops - it is, not the case -therefore - there is trouble in River City - a)Massachusetts has had years of Coakley & Company (including the Devalued Govenor), in order to form an opinion one way or another - Coakley's polls from the Democrat Primary were stellar, however, that she took 42% of the 35% approx. democrats in the state, does not bode well - watching her debate, she is playing to the base, in Massachusetts nothing could be more dangerous as 51% of the state is unenrolled - the third party candidate appears to be working for Coakley - he can expect to receive the 6% that normally goes to third party candidates in statewide races. So, without polls, other than internal (which, for obvious reasons, have not been released) you have Browns campaign moving mountain to get the word out and the voters tallied - Martha Coakley refuses to go into a debate without Kennedy, (who spends all of his time attacking - Brown - Martha appears to know that this will not be a landslide - and although the election is a mere 3 weeks away - one can comfortably speculate that Brown and Coakley will be within points of one another (that includes help from the SEIU and ACORN), - it may or may not be a nail biter, but partisanship aside, looking at the numbers, Brown should be going to Washington as the next Senator from the State of Mass - It would, of course, be interesting to see a poll come out of anywhere, including the Daily Kos, just to put some perspective on things - it's just too silent (and at a time when Democrats need a boost, even one in an area they allegedly "dominate" - it boggles the mind that if they were doing well, they would shout it from the rooftops.
Just saying.
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