Sunday, December 13, 2009

Complete 2010 Senate Rankings

Authors note - This is the political shape of 2010 elections, as I see it. It does not necessary represent the views of Jumping in Pools as a whole, or other writers.

Over the past several months, I have been observing polling data, campaign news, and watching the electoral attitude of the American people for the 2010 Senate elections (remember, we need just 41 Senate Republicans to stop all Democrat legislation in the 112th Congress), during that time I have compiled a complete ranking of the 2010 Senate races, and how it relates to the balance of power and Republicans.

With additional elections due to Presidential nominations, retirements, and the election of Barack Obama and Joe Biden to the Executive branch, not to mention the Massachusetts special Senate election in a few weeks, a grand total of 37 seats in the United States Senate will be up for election.

The rankings are based on solid Senate seats (100% in the hole for Democratic or Republican candidates), leaning Senate seats (leaning for either the Republican or Democratic candidate, however, that could change as November rolls around), and toss up Senate seats (not leaning for one candidate or the other, the most interesting to watch).

37 Senate seats up for election, 19 seats are Democratic controlled, 18 seats are Republicans controlled.

Solid Democratic seats - 10.

California - Senator Boxer (D).
Hawaii - Senator Inouye (D).
Indiana - Senator Bayh (D).
Maryland - Senator Mikulski (D).
Massachusetts - Open seat (D).
New York 1 - Senator Schumer (D).
Oregon - Senator Wyden (D).
Vermont - Sander Leahy (D).
Washington - Senator Murray (D).
Wisconsin - Senator Feingold (D).

Leaning Democratic seats - 3

Illinois - Open seat (D).
New York 2 - Senator Gillibrand (D).
North Dakota - Senator Dorgan (D). Note - North Dakota Governor and longtime Republican, John Hoeven would win if he does run, potential switchover.

Toss up seats - 4

Colorado - Senator Bennet (D).
Missouri - Open seat (R).
Ohio - Open seat (R).
Pennsylvania - Senator Specter (D).

Leaning Republican seats - 6

Arkansas - Senator Lincoln (D). Note - Lincolns fate depends on her health care vote.
Connecticut - Senator Dodd (D).
Delaware - Open seat (D). Note - Congressman Mike Castle (R) is running for the seat.
Kentucky - Open seat (D).
Nevada - Senator Reid (D).
New Hampshire - Open seat (D).

Solid Republican seats - 14

Alabama - Senator Shelby (R).
Alaska - Senator Murkowski (R).
Arizona - Senator McCain (R).
Florida - Open seat (R). Note - Both Republican candidates, Gov. Crist and Marco Rubio lead their Democratic opponent.
Georgia - Senator Isakson (R).
Idaho - Senator Crapo (R).
Iowa - Senator Grassley (R).
Kansas - Open seat (R).
Louisiana - Senator Vitter (R).
North Carolina - Senator Burr (R).
Oklahoma - Senator Coburn (R).
South Carolina - Senator DeMint (R).
South Dakota - Senatoe Thune (R).
Utah - Senator Bennett (R).

As it stands...

Senate Democrats will retain 13 seats, and lose 4 seats.
Senate Republicans will retain 16 seats, and gain 4 seats.
4 Senate seats are undecided - 2 are Republican, 2 are Democrat.

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Anonymous said...

You are forgetting about voter turnout. The Democrats are going to sit at home this election cycle, while the Independents and Republicans have been sufficiently motivated to go out and vote.


smitty1e said...

I CA re-elects Boxer [puking sounds].

R4 card said...

I don't think it matters. What committees you get to sit on is determined by your party's leadership in the Senate. Basically, you get to do whatever the majority leader says you get to do; seniority isn't that important.

UNRR said...

This post has been linked for the HOT5 Daily 12/14/2009, at The Unreligious Right

Anonymous said...

Hoeven is not the shoo in you're talking about. For one, he is a big spender and that eliminates him being able to cast Dorgan as a big spender. Second, he has given money to Dorgan in the past. How do you explain that one. Third, he's not running. The Gov office is saying they are 99.9% sure he's not going. He never takes a tough stance. Dorgan will eat him alive. The filed candidate is actually more popular in conservative circles. The guy's name is Paul Sorum. He's a real conservative in the mold of Palin, Thune, and Canter. The guy is legit and state polls show him inching ahead of Dorgan. He's not a real politician. Bottom line only a conservative can beat Dorgan and unfortunately Hoeven is not a conservative. Paul Sorum has my vote for North Dakota Senate.