Why Hoffman has a chance to win.

The 2009 special congressional election in the 23rd congressional district, is about to become full circle, as the Democrats nominate their candidate tomorrow night, considering the weak field of contenders, and that a Democrat has not received over 70,000 votes in this district as far as I can tell for decades, the main battle will be between Republican Dede Scozzafava & Conservative Doug Hoffman.

The enrollment figures tell an interesting story :

Republican party - 167,272
Democrat party - 120,887
Independence party of New York - 19,619
Conservative party of New York - 5,561
Others - 2,502
Blank - 76,194

Republicans have an 50,000 voter edge over the Democrats, and with the Independence party backing Scozzafava, they have a near 70,000 voter edge over the Democrats. This however does not tell the full story.

Here is why Hoffman has a chance at winning :

1.Hoffman already has the pool of 5,000 voters backing him, not to mention a majority of the Republican party is Conservative leaning, and the fact a lot of them have problems with Scozaafava, not to mention Independents & Conservative Democrats who might not like the choices of "Liberal A and Liberal B", as the big party choices.

2.Republicans & Conservatives show up more to elections, especially special elections - look at Illinois 5th congressional election, then the special election which followed in 2009 - 20% of the Republicans who voted last year, came out again for this special election, however only 16-18% of the Democrats voters came out again.

3.Republicans are sick and tired of liberal candidates, plus considering the Conservative party has won before and shocked the state political ground, it can always occur again.


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