Friday, May 7, 2010

2010 Florida Senate Race: Crist lead will not last.

According to a recent Mason Dixon poll on the United States Senate race in Florida, Governor Crist has increased his support in Florida to 38%, while Marco Rubio has fallen to 32% and the lone admitted Democrat has tumbled to an embarrassing 19%.

Some believe the situation for the Democrat candidate can only get worse, as Florida Democrats will continue to flee his campaign and join Charlie Crist, as a Southern version of Joe Lieberman would be better than a younger, Cuban version of Ronald Reagan in their opinion.

It could very well work out that way, but I still believe Marco Rubio will receive 45% of the vote, Meeks will carry 43% of the vote, and Governor Crist will fall to 12% of the vote - unlikely to anyone reading the latest polls. However, we must remember Independent candidacies always perform well at first, but 90% Republicans will join Rubio, and Democrats will eventually rediscover their own candidate.

Charlie Crist is the perfect candidate at the perfect time for an Independent bid for Washington, being a popular Redstate Governor in a traditional Redstate. However, his support for the faulty Stimulus package will remove Independent voters from his column, Republicans who still stand by their man, will eventually flee his campaign as November approaches, and I just cannot see Democrats leaving their candidate to suffer the embarrassment of a third place finish to Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, two right-of-center individuals.

Call me biased as a longtime Marco Rubio supporter, but his campaign has the momentum and energy of Conservative Floridians, and I just cannot see Charlie Crist's campaign of over-the-road Democrats and fence sitting Independents leading Crist to Paradise, or even Walt Disney for that matter.

Crist will fall, the only question is when.

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