Saturday, October 24, 2009

Daily Kos poll : Owens is in the lead with 35% of the vote?

According to a poll commissioned by the liberal blog, Daily Kos, Democrat Bill Owens is leading in the special congressional election in New York's 23rd congressional district, after looking through their sample size, the day the poll was taken, and history, I believe this poll to be 100% wrong.

Results of Daily Kos poll & sample size

According to the poll, Democrat Bill Owens would receive 35% of the vote if the election was held today, Republican "Dede" Scozzafava would receive 30% of the vote, and Conservative Doug Hoffman would receive 23% of the vote. However, the poll was completed during Monday-Wednesday earlier this week, since then Sarah Palin, Dick Armey, and Congressman Bachmann have all endorsed Doug Hoffman. Not to mention, Scozzafava made a buffoon of herself during a news conference in front of Hoffman's campaign headquarters. All of which, has probably made an impact with right-of-center voters.

The "sample size" of the poll includes 42% Republican voters, 32% Democratic votes, and 26% Independent voters. There are numerous problems with their sample size, 1. 43% of voters are Republicans, and 31% of voters are Democrats, 2. New York has several smaller political parties, there are only 19% real Independents in the 23rd congressional district.

Historic record & voter turnout

The poll neglects to count in the voter turnout factor, as voter turnout will be smaller then the usual congressional election, and if electoral history is any guide, the Republican share of the vote will be larger then their voting registration during a special election, and more Republicans will probably vote in the special election from last November, then Democrats.. Take the special election which was held in New York's 20th congressional district earlier this year, Republican turnout during the special election compared to last November was huge compared to the Democratic side.

The Democrat received 177,677 votes last November, the Republican received 109, 644 votes last November. Allowing Congresswoman Gillibrand to win a second term in Congress, however, she was soon appointed to the Senate in replacement of Clinton.

During the 2009 special election, the Democrat received 80,833 votes (or 45% of what the Democrat received during the November election). On the flipside, the Republican received 80,107 votes (or 73% of what the Republican received during the November election).

The Republican candidate was able to muster 28% more voters from last years election to turn out again, then the Democrat was able to. Though the Democrat won by 700 votes, it was an incredible election attempt by the Republican.

Considering previous history, the Republican share of the vote will probably be 5-6% points higher then their voter registration, this is something the poll does not take into account, then again, it is not an exact science.


The poll is probably wrong. Considering their numbers are off, it is not adjusted to reflect low voter turnout and a higher percentage of Republicans coming out to vote on election day.
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