Thursday, September 3, 2009

California's tenth congressional special election could be interesting.

Attention has been on the Gubernatorial races in Virginia & New Jersey, the possibility for a United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, and the very interesting upcoming special election in Upstate New York, However, the special congressional election in the 10th congressional district in California has received very little media attention.

While the tenth congressional district has a D+11 political rating, voted for Obama by a 64.7% to 33.10% margin, and is a liberal congressional district. The potential for a Republican upset is improbable, although the possibility of an upset is not politically unrealistic.

The previous Democratic representatives, Ellen Tauscher, resigned from the United States House of Representatives after she was approved by the United States Senate, to a position in the Obama administration. That has set-off the process for a special congressional election in the district, and the second special congressional election in the state of California.

If the September first primary is any indication, the Republican party could make this election competitive to a point, although hard work would be required for such an event to occur. The statistics reveals some interesting facts between the 2008 election & the September first primary.

2008 election :

Democrat Ellen Tauscher, 65.20% of the vote, 192,226.

Republican Nicholas Gerber, 31.10% of the vote, 91,877.

Freedom & peace Eugene Ruyle, 3.70% of the vote, 11,062.

2009 September first primary :

Democratic candidates, 64.56% of the vote, 62,522.

Republican candidates, 34.36% of the vote, 33,285.

Third party candidates, 1.08% of the vote, 1,044.

Nominees :

Democrat Lt.Governor John Garamandi received 26.15% of the combined primary vote. Republican David Harmer received 20.58% of the combined primary vote. Over 50% of all primary voters supported for other Republicans, Democrats, & third party candidates.

Results :

Based on percentage, 3.26% more Republicans made up the voting bloc during the primary, then during the congressional election last year. Also, over 36% of Republicans who voted during the 2008 election, voted during the September first primary. Likewise based on percentage, nearly 1% fewer Democrats made up the voting blog during the primary, and only 32.5% of Democrats who voted in the 2008 congressional election, cared to show up to the September first primary.

As previous special elections have shown, Republicans & Conservatives alike usually turnout more then their Democrat counterparts, this could play crucial in the 10th congressional special election. What Republicans have to do is encourage massive turnout among their own voters, the Republican candidate, David Harmer needs to build a coalition with conservativelike Democrats & Independents, while hoping two other liberals can steal some votes from the Democrat. Also, the Republicans need to fund raise like they never have before to win this election.

Harmer could make a run for it, however, much work will be needed.

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