Friday, August 20, 2010

Stunner: MD Governor's Race Tied

Four years ago when the Democratic Party was sweeping across the country, Republican incumbent Governor Bob Erlich was defeated by a seven point margin by Democrat and Baltimore Mayor Marty O'Malley. Today, in the rematch Erlich appears to have closed that gap and has tied his opponent.

Erlich (R): 47%
O'Malley* (D): 47%
Other/und: 6%
* Denotes incumbent.

This poll was conducted by Rasmussen, the most accurate of the major national pollsters. There are several factors at play here:

  • The heavy GOP year should help Erlich, but this is a heavily blue state.
  • The Tea Party will not play a major role in this largely urban, coastal state.
  • If undecided voters break off 2-1 against the incumbent, then Erlich is looking at a 51-49% win.
  • This election will likely come down to Democratic turnout, and not as much GOP turnout simply due to the great advantage of registered Democrats.

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