Erlich (R): 47%
O'Malley* (D): 47%
* Denotes incumbent.
This poll was conducted by Rasmussen, the most accurate of the major national pollsters. There are several factors at play here:
- The heavy GOP year should help Erlich, but this is a heavily blue state.
- The Tea Party will not play a major role in this largely urban, coastal state.
- If undecided voters break off 2-1 against the incumbent, then Erlich is looking at a 51-49% win.
- This election will likely come down to Democratic turnout, and not as much GOP turnout simply due to the great advantage of registered Democrats.
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