Boxer (D): 47%
Fiorina (R): 44%
Boxer's numbers are less than 50%, which in and of itself is a red flag. Given that California is so heavily Democratic, the fact that Fiorina is near 45% is great for this stage of the race. In times like this, undecided voters tend to break off 2/3 for the non-incumbent. Considering there is 9% in the other category, if 2/3 go for Fiorina, it's a 50-50 tie.
There are some things we don't see here. Boxer's negatives are very high, although the polling doesn't factor in the possibility of a surge of new voters:
Boxer's slight numerical lead masks potentially serious problems for the senator, starting with how 52 percent of the respondents hold an unfavorable view of her.
At the same time, her job approval rating is among the lowest that Field has measured for her since she was first elected to the Senate in 1992: 43 percent of registered voters disapprove of her performance while 42 percent approve. Among likely voters, 48 percent disapprove and 42 percent approve.
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