In order to win back the Senate, the GOP needs to win ten Senate seats. It's not impossible-- the Democrats won eight in 2008 and then had the good fortune of Arlen Specter switching parties. While not impossible, it is still very unlikely.
But we can all hope.
There's still a lot of factors open, but there are some we have to look at.
Advantage: GOP
1. In an off-year election, only die-hard voters tend to come out. Transient and voters who vote for Dems because it's en vogue are much less likely to cast ballots.
2. With 2009's deficit larger than all eight years of the Bush deficits, spending hawks (including many libertarians) will likely vote Republican.
3. Corruption scandals, such as Roland Burris, Rob Blagojevich, and Chris Dodd will push some, perhaps not most, ethics voters to the GOP.
4. Unemployment and the floundering economy will likely put much of the blame on President Obama's party.
5. The fact that the Democrats are in control will hurt their 'outsider' credibility.
6. The GOP is enthusiastic for the first time since 2004.
Disadvantage: GOP
1. The electorate is different than in 1994. The white and evangelical communities are smaller proportions of the US electorate than 16 years ago.
2. The 'blame Bush' card will still work among the young and urbanites.
3. Pop culture will drive out some (if not many) people who would not vote anyway. Expect a Jon Stewart/Hollywood/MTV-led drive to "Rock the Vote."
4. Sometimes people are just dumbasses.
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