Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Joe Miller Wins in Alaska.


Joe Miller has officially won the Republican Senatorial Nomination:

Judge Joe Miller - 52,360 - 50.71%.
Sen. Murkowski - 50,891 - 49.29%.
Difference in tally - 1,469 - 01.42%.

This represents the end of Senator Lisa Murkowski's Senate career, which started in December of 2002. She was originally appointed by her father to the position, and was elected to her own full-term (6 years) in 2004 by 9,349 votes. President Bush won Alaska by 80,000 votes that same day.

Toomey Lead Opens to 10%

Some more good news for Pat Toomey, who recently expanded his lead over Democrat Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The good news is that that lead expanded yet again, this time to a full ten percent. This is certainly not only news for the fact that Toomey appears to be surging but Sestak is flailing. The poll is from Reuters (be careful, PDF file). A similar Rasmussen poll out today has Toomey leading by 6%.

Reuters
Toomey (R): 47%
Sestak (D): 37%
Other/und: 16%

Rasmussen

Toomey (R): 48%
Sestak (D): 42%
Other/und: 10%


The Reuters poll is a bit suspect for the simple fact that their undecideds are 60% higher than Rasmussen. This implies that polling all adults is not as accurate as Rasmussen's likely voters metric. Both polls show Toomey with similar support, pushing near 50%, showing that Sestak has to win nearly all of the undecided voters to pull ahead. Unfortunately for him, that looks increasingly unlikely.

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State of Alaska is counting 15,000 ballots today.

Update (10:25) - Just two more items to note:

This is the second time that Sarah Palin has defeated a Murkowski.

This is the first time in three decades that no Murkowski will be in DC.

Update (9:34) - Miller will bring something unique to D.C. from Alaska:

100% Conservatism. No questions asked.

Update (9:31) - I think it's safe to say that Miller has won:

Judge Joe Miller - 52,360 - 50.71%.
Sen. Murkowski - 50,891 - 49.29%.
Difference in tally - 1,469 - 01.42%.

Murkowski needs a miracle to win. It's time to concede.

Congrats to Mr.Miller, lets win this election now!

Update (5:34) - Visit the Alaska Politics Blog for Updates.

Murkowski-Miller results are current as of 5:30 PM.

As of now the Alaska Division of Elections has counted 6,096 Republican votes out of 15,000 total votes this afternoon (most are Republican, and there are still about 9,000-10,000 votes overall that need to be counted within the next few weeks), and Senator Murkowski has closed the gap by another 200+ votes.

Senator Murkowski-Joe Miller election day results:

Judge Joe Miller - 47,027 - 50.90%.
Sen. Murkowski - 45,359 - 49.10%.
Difference in tally - 1,668 - 01.80%.

Current Sen. Murkowski-Joe Miller election results:

Judge Joe Miller - 49,888 - 50.66%.
Sen. Murkowski - 48,594 - 49.34%.
Difference in tally - 1,294 - 01.30%.

Sen. Murkowski-Joe Miller absentee ballot vote split:

Sen. Murkowski - 3,235 - 53.00%.
Judge Joe Miller - 2,861 - 47.00%.
Difference in tally - 374 - 06.00%.

With 10,000 Republican absentee ballots uncounted, Senator Murkowski would only need to win 59% those of votes. However, with close to 25,000 outstanding ballots overall (including those already counted today), we can expect upwards to 15,000 Republican ballots in addition to the initial 92,000 votes that were cast last week, which means Senator Murkowski only needs to win 56% of all votes counted.

With 6,096 ballots counted - Murkowski has captured only 53% of votes counted. She might win a majority of absentee and uncounted votes over the next few weeks, but she must capture 56% of votes overall to win the nomination: something that seems increasingly unlikely, but not entirely impossible.

I'll be updating this article through out the day.

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Delaware and South Carolina.

Tea Partiers dislike Congressman Castle of Delaware, and Senator Graham of South Carolina. So far as to challenge Mr.Castle in Delaware's Senatorial Republican Primary. However, this creates a political situation that could end up hurting the Tea Party, hurting Republicans, and hurting all chance of winning in Delaware.

Mr.Castle is a Delaware Republican - supports cap & trade, supports socially liberal policies, and supports more Democratic positions than any other Republican in Congress. He is the RINO of the House, I know that. But I also know the state that he resides from: Delaware, the first state to support the federal Constitution, and almost the last one to support a Republican.

Mr.Castle is the only individual to win statewide office in Delaware since the early 1990's, as a member of the Republican Party. No-one else has done that, and no-one else has come close to doing that. It's true that Mr.Castle is a Republican liberal, but his opponent is a Democrat liberal, and I will take 55% Conservatism over 100% Liberalism every day of the week.

The Tea Party doesn't give a damn about what I just wrote. They want Grand Old Party scalps, and they want Ms.Christine O'Donnell, a lovely Pro-Life advocate, to be our Nominee against the Democratic Nominee, Chris Coons, who is leading Ms.O'Donnell by 7-to-10 points according to almost every poll. While at the same time: Castle leads in every poll.

So here's the situation: Mr.Castle is the only Republican that can win in Delaware, but the Tea Party is supporting a candidate that has already lost running for this seat before (2008 election against Joe Biden), and is running towards her fourth* straight electoral defeat now. There's a time for pureness and there's a time for big tents.

Senator Graham in South Carolina is a time for pureness. Michael Castle in Delaware is a time for big, big, big tents. Republicans regaining the United States Senate depends on winning every seat that we can, with the proper candidates that will bring us to the promise land.

Any thoughts?

* - Lost the Republican Nomination for US Senate in 2006.
* - Lost the 2006 US Senate Election running as a Write-in.
* - Lost the 2008 US Senate Election against Senator Biden.

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Interview With Liberty Junkie

 Today Jumping in Pools is proud to present interview number 112 in our ongoing series. Today we are interviewing Rich, the editor of the new site Liberty Junkie. Make sure to bookmark the site-- it has your daily dose of news wrapped up into one page!


1. When and why did you start Liberty Junkie?
LibertyJunkie is actually only a few weeks old.  I spend a lot of time reading blogs - not just the big names, but the lesser known blogs as well.  I had planned to start my own blog, but soon realized that its pretty tough creating original content on a regular basis.  Still like so many bloggers, I felt a "call to action" due to the problems that face our country today.  So, I figured the best way I can make an impact would be to help promote the many blogs I read and agree with. 

2. Would you consider yourself more Conservative or Libertarian?
I recently read a quote from Greg Gutfeld: "I became a Republican by spending time with Liberals.  I became a Libertarian by spending time with Republicans.  That pretty much sums it up for me as well. 

3. Has Obama been better or worse than you expected/feared?
Far worse.  My biggest concern with Obama was his lack of experience.  In spite of his radical ties, voting record, and everything else to be concerned about, I thought he was smart enough to understand his place in history and to ensure that he would have a successful presidency so as to not taint his place in history.  I expected a highly pragmatic, post-partisan president.  Unfortunately, it hasn't really been that way. 

4. Would you support a "RINO" in 2012?
Well, not in the primaries.  But if we had a rematch of 2008, I'd vote McCain again.  

5. Would Ron Paul make a good President?
I think so.  I think anyone that leans libertarian would have a lot of public support.  There would need to be a majority or close to a majority in Congress too - which I think we may see by 2012. 

6. How would you like to change the blogosphere?
For starters, I'm just hoping it doesn't get taxed and regulated into oblivion.  If that doesn't happen, my goal with LibertyJunkie is to aggregate the best conservative blogs all in one place.  There is so much information floating around, if I can organize it well, readers can always come to one spot to pull it all together.

http://libertyjunkie.com/

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Monday, August 30, 2010

Brewer Opens Solid Lead in AZ Governor's Race

Jan Brewer's political future seemed murky just six months ago. She was not elected to the office and there was talk about a challenge against her from the Republican Party. Now she appears almost inevitable to win another term in Arizona.

Brewer * (R): 57%
Goddard (D): 38%
Other/und: 5%
* Denotes incumbent

The poll is from Rasmussen, and as I always write, it is the most accurate national pollster. It appears that not only is Brewer's support growing but Goddard's is weakening. The low number of undecideds certainly does not help Goddard, who could win all of them and still get crushed. Turnout might be high on both sides-- as should be expected with such a contentious issue as immigration involved in a border state.

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Buck Up by Four in CO

Republican Ken Buck has taken a lead in the Senate race in Colorado. While Buck has had a narrow lead in the past, it appears that it may be widening. Buck is looking to defeat Obama-backed Michael Bennet. Bennet is also an incumbent and is big on the GOP take-over list. This lead appears to be good news. The numbers below include leaners:

Buck (R): 49%
Bennet * (D): 45%

Und/other: 6%
* Denotes incumbent

This poll is from Rasmussen, the most accurate national pollster around. It also appears to be bad news for the Democrats in that formerly solid-GOP Colorado is moving back to the red after voting for Barack Obama in 2008.

The low number of undecided voters appear to be helping Buck-- even if Bennet picked up 2/3 of these voters he would still lose narrowly.

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Glenn Beck Going Blind

Some sad news to report. Last month radio talk show host Glenn Beck announced on his radio show that he may be going blind. We offer our best wishes for a full recovery.
During his speech (video below), Beck told the audience, "I can't focus my eyes." 

Taking a shot at health care reform, Beck said, "I went to the best doctor I could find, while I could still go to the best doctor I can find."

Beck, 46, says he has been diagnosed with macular dystrophy, and joked that the doctor told him, "You could go blind in the next year . . . or you might not."

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/07/19/glenn-beck-i-might-be-going-blind/

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Interview With A Tangled Web

Today Jumping in Pools is proud to present interview number 111 in our ongoing series. Today we are interviewing David, the editor of a Tangled Web, which is a conservative blog covering issues in both the United States and Great Britain. A special thanks goes to David for taking part in the interview. Make sure to check out a Tangled Web and bookmark!

1. When and why did you start A Tangled Web?

Back in 2000 so the concept is a decade old. I started it as a forum to get around the bias of the MSM. Here in Northern Ireland, there was a siren chorus praising the appeasement of terrorism (or “peace process” in their vernacular) At the time I was Deputy Leader of a political party that stood on the principle of no talking to terrorists and we found the main stream media an impossible barrier to free debate. Since then it has grown and grown, become a transatlantic blog, discussing all points from Obama, to Islam, to the threat to democracy posed by supranationals such as the UN and EU, you name it we tackle it.

2. Has President Obama been better or worse than you expected?

No better and no worse. I said he would be awful and he is living down to expectations  For me the greatest concern lies in his betrayal of Israel and other friendly allies of the US. He has shown an arrogance that should ensure he does not get re-elected in 2012, although the media cannot be trusted to treat any opponent fairly. A lasting image is Obama grovelling to the Saudis – how symbolic of his Presidency. The biggest test of all is coming over how he responds to Israel attacking Iran. This is inevitable since the Mullahs seek to get nukes and Israel must stop them. I fear Obama will flunk the test, equivocate, and expose Israel to Arab aggression.    


3. What is the best part about running your site?

The freedom to write about whatever I want and to develop a team of writers who themselves have grown in stature and who provide great content. A Tangled Web is a place for those to come who dissent from the msm viewpoint and where principles prevail.

4. Where do you see Glenn Beck's future in five years?

He’ll make a great V-P to President Palin!

5. Do you believe that President Obama will be re-elected?

Nope. He is a one-termer and that is a no-brainer.

6. Anything else you would like to add?

Yes. I believe that there needs to be a re-alignment of politics for those who are right of liberal, both in the US an UK. Our politicians have lost touch with what counts, they have been seduced into embracing leftist values in order to win media plaudits and they have therefore failed us all. We need to ensure that we, the people, are in charge.




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Proof: Democrats at Fault for the Recession

Claims have been bandied about that President Bush was at fault for the economic down-turn that began in late 2007.  Until now, Democrats have pointed the finger at our 43rd President, stating that he single-handedly pushed our nation to the brink of economic collapse.  That stops today.  Examining unemployment, national debt data, and GDP growth, the truth becomes clear and apparent.  President Bush was not at fault for the recession we are in.  The Democrats who took over Congress in 2007 are.

From 1995 to January of 2007, Republicans held at least one house of Congress.  However, in the 2006 mid-term elections, Democrats won control of both the House and Senate.  They took their new offices in January, 2007.  Soon after that time until now, the United States has entered a deep recession, often attributed to President Bush.  However, examining the actions of the Democratic Congress and the effects that came, the truth is revealed.

Unemployment is a figure that commands the attention of everyone, from the rich to the poor.  Examining its data seems the logical place to start.  While President Bush and Republicans controlled Congress, unemployment stayed around 5%, increasing by slightly over 1% after 9/11, from 4.7% to 6.3% in January of 2002.  However, it eventually fell to 4.1% by the time of the November 2006 election.  After Democrats took office, they passed incredibly expensive new bills, including raising minimum wage and the CLEAN Energy Act.

Under the Democrats, unemployment started to balloon.  It stated to climb, rising past 4.5%, past 5%, past 6%, and past 6.5%, all the way to 8.5% by the time they had been in office for just two years.  By then, President Obama had been inaugurated, and unemployment continued to rise as spending increased.  This chart explains, in depth, the bills Democrats passed, and the effects they had from November 2006-March 2010 (click for a sharper, bigger image):
As you can see, the massive new spending that has been taking place from 2007-the present has had a major effect on unemployment.

A large National Debt data is also something that Democrats like to blame President Bush for.  However, examining our debt as a percent of our GDP shows the truth again.  This number sounds complicated, but in fact it is pretty simple.  "Our debt as a percent of our GDP" simply means that if our GDP is $100 and our debt is $60, then our "debt as a percent of our GDP" is 60%.  From 2001-2007 (when Republicans left office), the percent of our debt grew from 57.4% to 65.6%, or 8.8% (around 1.2% a year).  Though the number did rise, you must take into account 9/11, the devastation from Hurricane Katrina, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Further, from 2005-2007, it slowed to an average of .5% per year, which means it may have began to go down in the near future.

Then Democrats took office.  In their first full year in office, the debt as a percent of GDP rose 4.6%, from 65.6% to 70.2%.  The next year was even more astounding, as the percent rose 15.9%, to 86.1%.  So far this year, the percent is up another 5% to 91.1%.  This graph explains in greater detail (click for a better image):
See the huge spike on the right side?  That's when Democrats took control of Congress.

The growth of our very economy is also very important to examine.  Under President Bush and the Republican Congress, our GDP grew on average around 3%, peaking in the fall of 2003 to nearly 7%.  The GDP only decreased in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, and that was only for one quarter.

Then Democrats took Congress.  At the beginning of 2008, our GDP sharply dropped.  By the end of 2008, it was retracting at a rate of almost 7%.  This graph shows everything in more detail (click for a bigger, sharper image):
The fall in growth under Democrats is amazing.

Examining this data, there can only be one conclusion: the United States entered our recession as the result of the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2007.  The truth is out.  Once again, the Democratic strategy of blaming President Bush for everything is revealed to be a lie.  It is quite possible that the only way to remedy the recession we are in is to once again elect a Republican majority.

The truth is out.

If you like this story and favor the truth, please consider submitting this to Reddit, Digg, StumbleUpon, or any forums or people that you think may be interested.

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Sunday, August 29, 2010

Glenn Beck Rally Attendance

A lot of news coverage has come of Glenn beck and Sarah Palin's march/rally in Washington yesterday, which leads us to ask how many people were there. CBS has the number around 80,000-90,000. Michelle Bachmann put it at a million while other sources put it at 100,000 or 200,000. Beck has estimated the number at around 400,000. The number that appears to be the most reasonable is between 100,000 and 200,000.

How many do you think came?


Photo credit:
http://images.tbd.com/politics/glenn-beck-rally-westcott-828-005_606.jpg

Read more:
Is Glenn Beck Running for President?

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/glenn-beck-rally-how-big-was-the-crowd/?singlepage=true

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Reid Up by One in Nevada

According to the latest polling the race in Nevada remains razor thin. Harry Reid's surge in the poll has ceased and he is failing to gain traction against Republican nominee Sharron Angle. According to other recent polls Angle had either tied or gone slightly ahead in the race. The newest one from the Las Vegas Review Journal has Reid holding a small lead.

Reid * (D): 45%
Angle (R): 44%
Other/und: 9%
* Denotes incumbent

According to other polling done by the paper, many residents are disappointed by both major party nominees. This includes almost 50% who wish the Dems did not choose Reid and over 60% who said the same about Angle.

The low number of undecided certainly points that voters are making up their minds. The fact that Angle has been hit with attacks repeatedly and is still stable in the polls despite high personal negatives points to Nevadans having a severe dislike of Harry Reid.

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Should Conservatives forgive, forget and fight for Anh Cao?

Let's be honest.

All we need this November is to win 39 currently Democratic controlled seats in order to install John Boehner as the new Speaker of the House, as well as to hold on to what few vulnerable Republican seats are out there.

Among those we need to retain in order to reach the magic number of 218 is Anh Cao's seat in New Orleans, which he barely captured in 2008 when he was running against Representative William "cold cash" Jefferson, who is currently serving a lengthy prison sentence over those same corruption charges that Cao beat him over.

Anh "Joseph" Cao - 33,132 - 49.58%.
Rep. Bill Jefferson - 31,318 - 46.83%.
Other Candidates - 02,432 - 03.64%.

Since his amazing upset victory in a district that supported Barack Obama with 73% of it's inner-city vote just a few weeks before the runoff election, Congressman Cao has voted with Party leaders 82% of the time. Though he did cause much anguish when he initially voted for Obama's health care package last November, basing his vote solely on abortion coverage within the legislation, which led him to later oppose* the legislation in it's second trip through the House.

So do we bury the hatchet with Mr.Cao, or do we focus on gaining 40 Democratic seats instead of 39? Here's a sample of Cao's voting record on some of the more well known legislative items that have come before the House over the past 20 months (keep in mind his district voted for Obama with 73% of the vote):

Stimulus Package - Nay.
Lilly Ledbetter Act - Nay.
Obama-GIVE Act - Aye.
2010 Fiscal Budget - Nay.
Cap & Trade/Tax - Nay.
Obamacare (Nov.) - Aye.
Wall Street (Dec.) - Nay.
Hawaii Tribal Act - Aye.
2010 Patriot Act - Aye.
Obamacare (Mar.) - Nay.
DISCLOSE Act - Aye.
Wall Street (Jun.) - Aye.

Here's what we know about Mr.Cao: He supports the Military and our War on Terror, he's very pro-life, his record on economic issues is mixed, and he'll be a definite vote for John Boehner for House Speaker. Not the record of Eric Cantor, but still acceptable for a man from a district that is almost as Democratic as Nancy Pelosi's.

I forgive Mr.Cao for his initial support of ObamaCare, I've forgotten some of his liberal stances, and I will fight for Anh Cao to win reelection against his just nominated Liberal Democrat opponent this October. What about you?

* - Cao is extremely pro-life, the reason why he's a Republican.

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A Call for Contributors-- That Means You!

Jumping in Pools is currently looking for part-time contributors to write articles for the site. If you would like to write at your own pace, chime in with your opinion, and work for one of the best political sites on the web, send us an email at jumpinginpools@gmail.com.

Do it today!


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Is Glenn Beck Running for President?

It's not just spending, it's not just taxes, it's not just corruption, it is progressivism, and it is in both parties. It is in the Republicans and the Democrats.


Glenn Beck, one of the nation's most listened to radio and television personality, has been busy lately. Yesterday, he and 2008 VP candidate and former Governor Sarah Palin held a rally together, telling the audience of possibly hundreds of thousands to 'restore America's honor.' He has been spearheading the "9.12 Project" in recent months, where he pleads with Americans to return to a 'simpler, more moral' time in our history. Mr. Beck has also been heavily tied to the Tea Party. Are these isolated incidents, as Beck used to say, or are they tied to a grander scheme? Is Glenn Beck running for President?

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Haley Up Big in South Carolina

 The Republican candidate for governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, has opened a wide lead over her Democratic opponent. Haley won a huge primary victory over multiple opponents despite all of the slander leveled against her. Her victory would make her the second Indian-American governor in American history. The poll is from Rasmussen, the most accurate national pollster.

Haley (R): 52%
Sheheen (D): 36%
Other/und: 12%

Up by 16%
Haley's numbers simply show that she's cruising towards an easy victory. Not only is she above 50% but Sheheen can't even break 40%. It would also appear that all of the accusations of misdoing have not stuck and Haley's former role in the administration of Governor Mark Sanford.

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Obama: Are You Aware of How Great I Am?

I know that I shouldn't be surprised by this, but President Obama has decided to credit himself for our (and President Bush's) victory in Iraq.  If you're not aware, here is Obama saying that the surge could not work and that "no amount of American lives can resolve the political disagreement that lies at the heart of someone else's civil war."  Oh, and that the first thing he'd do is pull us out of Iraq:



And here he is lying his butt off and taking credit for the victory that our troops bled and died for:



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Tancredo: I'm Not Hurting the GOP by Running for Governor Third Party

 Tom Tancredo was a former Congressman from Colorado. He was brash but to the point and served as a beacon of candor. However, he flip-flopped on the war, siding with the Democrats towards the end of his tenure in the capitol and has turned from an arch-conservative into more of a libertarian.

Now he is running for Colorado Governor as a third-party candidate. Polls show him with some support, but still a distant third. If you combine his numbers with those of the Republican candidate Dan Maes they outnumber the Democratic candidate. Still, Tancredo says that his running is not an ego trip or an attempt to block the GOP.

But Tancredo pushed back against charges he is hurting conservatives, arguing he has better odds of winning the three-way race than Maes has of defeating Hickenlooper one-on-one. Tancredo said Maes cannot and should not win the general election.

“I don’t believe he is the person he says he is,” Tancredo said of Maes.

Still, it does appear that  Tancredo's candidacy is hurting the state GOP-- although it is unclear whether or not Maes would actually be able to win in November in a one-on-one race.

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Crist Now Says He Would Have Voted for Obamacare Before He Voted Against It

Florida Governor Charlie Crist has apparently changed his position on Obamacare, just like he changed parties and his stance on teacher accountability, among other things. The independent candidate for Senate now claims that the health care bill was really good-- but also really bad. Huh?

"If I misspoke, I want to be abundantly clear: the health care bill was too big, too expensive, and expanded the role of government far too much," Crist said in a statement. "Had I been in the United States Senate at the time, I would have voted against the bill because of unacceptable provisions like the cuts to the Medicare Advantage program."

I know that this is just like John Kerry's double-speak during the 2004 presidential campaign. Both Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican Marco Rubio are attacking the governor-- apparently he makes no sense to them, either.

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Joe in History: Updated

Here's an updated version of the very first Joe in History.  Enjoy:
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Shock: Alvin Greene Losing in South Carolina Senate Race

Shock has rocked the political world as no-name Republican Jim DeMint now has a commanding lead over the over-qualified Democrat Alvin Greene.  Sure, Alvin Greene is on trial for a felony and he lives with his mother, but the 44% lead must come from left field.

In all seriousness, though, who expected anything different (other than Mr. Greene)?  Mr. DeMint has great name-recognition in the state and should *cough* consider *cough* running for President.  Mr. Greene is unemployed, is probably going to jail (from what I read), is hilariously unknown, and at 33 lives with his mother.

The only long-shot candidate that is probably going to win is our Joe.
Go get 'um Joe!

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Glenn Beck and West Virginia.

One major event (Beck's "Restoring Honor" rally) and one important election (West Virginia's Senatorial Primaries) will take place on this unusually news packed Saturday. Unfortunately, I will be mastering (bow) hunting classes all this morning and afternoon, which leaves me without the opportunity to live blog either news worthy-new story.

So here are some notes and thoughts on both stories.

"Restoring Honor" notes:

1. Albert Pujols will be attending Beck's rally this morning/afternoon.
2. The rally will be broadcast on C-SPAN from 10:00 AM to 12:45 PM.
3. The attendance could be anywhere from 100,000 to 300,000 today.

"Restoring Honor" thoughts:

As long as Beck's message remains apolitical and on "Content of Character", I have absolutely no problem with his rally at the Lincoln Memorial today.

West Virginia Primary notes:

1. Joe Manchin will win the Democratic Primary with ease (65% of vote).
2. John Raese should win the GOP Nomination, such as he did back in '96.
3. Voter turnout is expected to be weak: "in the low to mid-20 point range".
4. The polls will be open for regular voting between 6:30 AM and 7:30 PM.

West Virginia Primary thoughts:

VOTE! This election is very important, and it offers Republicans a shot at a long considered "safe seat", even if that shot is long.

Any thoughts?

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